Voting Intention – 27th April

27th April 2012

Labour hold on to their 7 point lead while David Cameron’s approval dips and the Lib Dems and UKIP swap places again with the yellows dipping to 4th place and the purples climbing to 3rd.

  • While the Conservatives have marginally improved on their previous showing (32%, up from 31% in the previous poll), Labour have improved by an identical amount (38% to 39%) and maintain a 7 point lead.
  • The Lib Dems have dropped to fourth place again (8%) while UKIP have climbed to 10%.
  • David Cameron’s approval rating has deteriorated since our last poll with only 31% of likely voters approving of his performance as Prime Minister. 53% disapprove giving him a net approval rating of -22%
  • While Ed Miliband’s approval rating of 21% remains behind David Cameron’s, his disapproval rating (47%) is also lower giving him a net rating of -26%. This is the closest the two men have been in terms of net approval ratings since Opinium started measuring these last September.
  • Indeed with 53% disapproving of his job performance, Mr Cameron is now as close to Nick Clegg’s 58% disapproval as he is to Mr Miliband’s 46%.
  • Nick Clegg’s approval rating has improved slightly to 15% with 58% disapproving (down from 61%) giving him a net rating of -43%.

With voters punishing both coalition parties in the local elections and the UK officially having entered a double dip recession, likely voters still don’t really trust Labour on the economy:

  • 34% of respondents trust the Tories on cutting the deficit vs. only 20% for Labour. In contrast, 30% trust Labour to reduce unemployment vs. only 21% for the Tories
  • On all other issues though, respondents gave neither party a clear lead. The Tories lead by 2 points on public spending and 1 point on regulating the financial sector while Labour lead by 2 points on taxation.
  • On the key issue of getting the economy growing, 29% of likely voters trust the Conservatives vs. only 26% for Labour despite the economy dropping into recession under a Conservative led coalition suggesting Labour still has a great deal of work to do to regain trust in this area.

Topline Voting Intention

Liberal Democrats8-3
Other parties21+1

Other Parties (breakdown)

Plaid Cymru1n/c

Approval ratings

% Approve% DisapproveNet ratingNet rating (own party)
David Cameron31%53%-22%+71%
Ed Miliband21%47%-26%+27%
Nick Clegg15%58%-43%+40%


Opinium Research carried out an online survey of 1,769 GB adults aged 18+ from 27th to 30th April 2012. Results have been weighted to nationally representative criteria.

Interview Method and Sample

This survey is conducted online by CAWI (computer aided web interviewing), using Opinium?s online research panel of circa 30,000 individuals. This research is run from a representative sample of GB adults (aged 18+ in England, Scotland and Wales). The sample is scientifically defined from pre-collected registration data containing gender, age (18-34, 35-54, and 55+), region (North East, North West, Yorkshire and Humberside, East Midlands, West Midlands, East of England, London, South East, South West, Wales, and Scotland), working status and social grade to match the latest published ONS figures.

Opinium also takes into account differential response rates from the different demographic groups, to ensure the sample is representative.