Polling Results

UK: Voting intention – 19th November 2020

The Conservatives return to the lead for the first time since early September

The two main parties have switched places with the Conservatives leading by 3 points, on 41%, vs. 38% for Labour.

Labour have dropped by 4 points while the Conservatives have gained 3. This continues the pattern since August of the two parties trading first place with neither opening up a significant lead but does bring to an end a nearly two month run in which Labour was ahead of, or at parity with, the Conservatives.

The net change among minor parties is around 1% each.

It is difficult to isolate the degree to which the ongoing saga of Jeremy Corbyn and antisemitism has impacted the ratings of the Labour party and its leader. The ECHR report and Corbyn’s initial suspension came out on October 29th and in our first poll afterwards, Labour went from a 2 point lead to a 4 point lead. Now, in the wake of a Labour NEC panel reinstating Corbyn and Starmer refusing to readmit him to the Parliamentary Labour Party, Labour’s vote share has dropped by four points.

You can find the full report here.

You can find the full data tables here.