UK: Scottish Parliament voting intention – 28 April 2021
In Opinium’s final poll of the 2021 Scottish Parliament election, the SNP hold a commanding lead in the constituency voting intention, with 51% of the vote share. This is followed by the Conservatives on 23% of the vote share and Labour on 19%. Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats are on 7% of the vote share.
While the SNP also lead on the regional list vote, their lead is smaller in comparison. This is the result of many pro-indy voters backing the smaller parties. The SNP hold 41% of the vote share on the regional list, while the Conservatives hold 23% and Labour on 17%. The Green party hold 8% of the vote share, with the Liberal Democrats on 6% and the Alba party on 3%.
Nicola Sturgeon has seen a noticeable fall in favourability ratings but remains as the most popular leader with a net approval rating of +17, down from +23 last month. Anas Sarwar has continued to see a boost in his numbers, with a net favourability of +13, up from +10 in April, and -3 in March.
While Douglas Ross also seems to have recovered a little (net of -26, up from -31), Alex Salmond languishes with a net approval rating of -70.
Appetite for coalitions
There is little appetite amongst the Scottish public for a possible coalition. The only situation in which more people think would be good for Scotland than bad for Scotland is an SNP majority (46% good for Scotland, vs 41% not good).
Any coalition involving the Alba party is received incredibly badly by voters, with just 14% thinking an SNP Alba coalition would be good for Scotland, and 17% thinking one also including the greens would be good for Scotland. 65% and 62% retrospectively think those outcomes would be bad for Scotland.
Opinion on an independent referendum is now split firmly down the middle 50/50 (down from 51% for yes in Opinium’s previous poll)
There has also been a shift in the idea of holding a referendum in the first place, even if the SNP win, with just 28% thinking one should happen in the next 2 years (-5%) and a further 14% thinking it should happen in the next 2-5 years (-2%). The shift has come from Labour voters. In Opinium’s previous poll 45% of Labour 2019 voters thought there should be a referendum in the next 5 years if the SNP win a majority, that has now dropped to just 24%.
Please find the full data tables here.