Voting Intention – 13th April

13th April 2012

After a poorly received budget, controversies over taxes on grannies and pasties and a retro, “90’s style” cash for access scandal, the Conservatives’ ratings have dropped along with David Cameron’s job approval score.

  • Labour maintain their 5 point lead with 37% to the Conservatives’ 32% although both main parties have dipped slightly since the last poll in mid-March. After frequently trading places with Labour since January, the Tories took a sharp dive in our March 21st poll taken immediately after George Osborne presented the Budget.
  • David Cameron’s job approval took a hit as well. While 40% approved of his job performance in early March, this dropped to 37% after the budget and just 35% in the most recent survey
  • 49% disapprove of Mr Cameron’s job performance giving him a net rating of -14%. However, he is still easily the most popular major party leader, Labour’s Ed Miliband has a net rating of -28% while Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg has fallen to a new low of -41% (16% approve, 57% disapprove)
  • The most striking thing in the voting intention chart below is the spike in people choosing other parties. For the second survey in a row, UKIP are ahead of the Lib Dems in third place.
  • Coinciding with the Tories’ dip, UKIP are on 10% to the Lib Dems’ 9% and make up almost half of those choosing a party other than the big three. The Greens (4%) and SNP (4%) are also higher than usual.

Topline Voting Intention

Liberal Democrats9+1
Other parties22+3

Other Parties (breakdown)

Plaid Cymru1n/c

Approval ratings

% Approve% DisapproveNet ratingNet rating (own party)
David Cameron35%49%-14%+79%
Ed Miliband20%48%-28%+22%
Nick Clegg16%57%-41%+37%

Voting Intention Tracker

Opinium Research carried out an online survey of 1,957 GB adults aged 18+ from 13th to 16th April 2012. Results have been weighted to nationally representative criteria.

Interview Method and Sample

This survey is conducted online by CAWI (computer aided web interviewing), using Opinium?s online research panel of circa 30,000 individuals. This research is run from a representative sample of GB adults (aged 18+ in England, Scotland and Wales). The sample is scientifically defined from pre-collected registration data containing gender, age (18-34, 35-54, and 55+), region (North East, North West, Yorkshire and Humberside, East Midlands, West Midlands, East of England, London, South East, South West, Wales, and Scotland), working status and social grade to match the latest published ONS figures.

Opinium also takes into account differential response rates from the different demographic groups, to ensure the sample is representative.