Voting intention: 9th September 2026
See the full data tables here.
Labour continues to lead the voting intention poll, but its advantage has narrowed to only a 2 point lead over Reform UK.
Alongside the tightening race, the poll highlights a mixed picture for party leaders and parties heading into conference season. While Andy Burnham remains ahead on leadership measures, recent events appear to have had differing impacts across the political spectrum, particularly for Reform UK.
Labour’s lead over Reform is decreasing
Labour remains the largest party on 27%, followed by Reform UK on 25%. The Conservatives are on 19%, with the Green Party on 11% and the Liberal Democrats on 10%. Compared with last week, Labour is down one point, while both Reform UK and the Conservatives have gained a point.
Andy Burnham remains the only major political figure to record a positive net approval rating, though his score has fallen by ten points since last week to +5. Kemi Badenoch’s net approval score improves to 0, while Ed Davey records -3. Nigel Farage remains on -26 and Zack Polanski on -22.
Burnham also continues to lead on preferred Prime Minister measures. When matched against Kemi Badenoch, 38% choose Burnham compared with 20% for Badenoch. Against Nigel Farage, Burnham leads by 43% to 24%.
Immigration remains the dominant issue
Immigration continues to top the list of issues facing the country, selected by 51% of respondents. Health and the NHS remain the second most important issue on 47%, while the economy follows closely behind on 44%.
The stability of these rankings suggests that voters’ priorities remain largely unchanged, with immigration maintaining a clear lead over other concerns despite continued attention on economic and public service pressures.
Reform UK’s conference struggles to cut through
Following Nigel Farage’s speech at the Reform UK conference, public opinion was divided. 28% said the speech was bad compared with 23% who said it was good. Those who viewed it positively tended to praise Farage’s directness, while critics questioned his trustworthiness and the substance of the speech. However, nearly half of respondents (49%) said they did not know whether the speech was good or bad, suggesting overall limited engagement.
The wider party tracker paints a challenging picture for Reform UK. More than half (54%) of respondents believe the party had a bad week, compared with just 17% who think it had a good one, giving Reform UK a net score of -37. This is a sharp deterioration from the previous week, where Reform UK registered a net score of -25.
Questions remain for Zack Polanski and the Greens
The poll finds that Zack Polanski receives negative ratings across all tested leadership attributes. His strongest scores relate to being a strong leader (-14), sticking to his principles (-15), and being brave (-16), although these still produce net negative ratings.
His weakest ratings are on whether he looks like a Prime Minister in waiting (-36), whether he has similar views to respondents (-30) and whether he can be trusted to take big decisions (-28).
The Green Party performs somewhat better as a political organisation than its leader. The party achieves its strongest result on knowing what it stands for (+3) and is relatively stronger on having a clear sense of purpose (-3) and being united (-3). However, voters remain sceptical about its readiness for government, with a net score of -38 on this measure.
Conference season fortunes vary by party
Labour was the party most likely to be seen as having had a good week, with 31% saying so. However, almost the same proportion (32%) believed it had had a bad week.
The Conservatives received more balanced evaluations, with 25% saying they had a good week and 25% saying they had a bad week. Public engagement with the Liberal Democrats and Green Party remained lower, with substantial majorities saying they did not know whether either party had experienced a good or bad week.
The latest poll suggests the gap between Labour and Reform UK has tightened further, even as Labour retains an advantage on leadership measures. At the same time, public concern continues to be dominated by immigration, while conference season appears to be having uneven effects across the parties. The findings also highlight the challenges facing smaller parties as they seek to build confidence in their leaders and governing credentials.
Opinium conducted a nationally and politically representative survey of 2,050UK adults aged 18+ between 9th and 11th September 2026.