Voting intention: 7th October 2026
See full data tables here.
Labour continues to lead in Opinium’s latest voting intention poll, maintaining a six-point advantage over Reform UK despite both parties seeing a small decline in support. The Conservatives, meanwhile, have recorded a modest increase in vote share following their party conference, with Kemi Badenoch’s leadership and policy announcements appearing to have generated a more positive public response.
The wider story is one of contrasting fortunes for the Conservatives and Greens. While the Conservatives are viewed as having had the strongest week of the major parties, the Greens face growing challenges following their conference decision to formally describe themselves as an anti-Zionist party, with both the party and leader Zack Polanski recording notably weaker ratings.
Voting intention and leader ratings
Labour continues to hold an overall lead in the voting intention at 29% (-1), with Reform in second place on 23% (-2). The Conservatives have seen a small rise to 20% (+3), followed by Greens on 9% (-2) and the Liberal Democrats on 9% (N/C).
When respondents were asked whether they would ever consider voting for the main five parties, regardless of how they plan to vote at the next general election, all parties received a net negative score. The Greens scored lowest on net -42. Labour performed strongest on -15, followed by the Conservatives on -23, Reform on -32 and the Lib Dems on -32.
In the wake of the Greens’ by-election loss in Holborn and St Pancras, Green leader, Zack Polanski, is now the most unpopular of the main party leaders, dropping 7 points to net –29, according to the latest polling from Opinium. Nigel Farage is next least popular leader on net -26 (-4), with Kemi Badenoch at net 0. Andy Burnham remains the only political leader with a net positive approval rating (+8, N/C).
Greens face growing reputational challenges
Following the passage of a controversial Conference motion formally describing themselves as an anti-Zionist party, the Greens are the most likely political party to be perceived by the public as having an antisemitism problem (+18), followed Reform UK (+13). The Greens’ perceived antisemitism problem has become more prominent since the question was last asked in May, increasing by 13 points.
Over half (56%) of current Green voters think the Green Party were right the pass the motion, while only 13% said they were wrong. Among the public overall, a third (35%) think the Greens were wrong to pass the motion, 16% think they were right to do so, 16% think they were neither right nor wrong and 33% don’t know.
More than two in five (46%) UK adults think the anti-Zionism motion is the wrong priority for the Green Party to focus on, with only 11% saying it is the right priority. A third (33%) of UK adults say the decision to pass the motion made them less favourable towards the Greens, with just 10% saying it made them more favourable to the party.
Public backs inheritance tax proposal
Half (50%) of the public say they support Badenoch announcement at the Tory Party Conference that they would exempt family homes from inheritance tax if elected, while only 16% oppose it. About a third (32%) think Kemi Badenoch’s conference speech was good, while 14% think it was bad, and over half (54%) have no opinion.
On policy, the Conservatives scored most highly among the public on defence and national security (+9), crime, justice and prisons (+3) and welfare and getting people into work (+2). They scored worst on Brexit and Britain’s relationship with the EU (-7), energy and climate change (-5), and public services (-3).
James Crouch, head of policy and public affairs at Opinium, said: “Andy Burnham and Kemi Badenoch both delivered commanding speeches, secured positive headlines and boosted their parties’ vote shares. Together, the two main parties now have their highest combined share in almost two years. The question is whether this is as good as it gets for the old guard, or the beginning of a genuine trend.”
Opinium conducted a nationally and politically representative sample of 2,050 UK adults aged 18 and over between 7th-9th October 2026