Voting intention: 7th July 2026
See the full data tables here.
Reform remains ahead in the polls but has suffered its weakest result in over 18 months, while Nigel Farage’s personal ratings have fallen to their lowest point of this Parliament. The findings suggest recent negative headlines Nigel Farage may be beginning to affect Reform’s standing in the polls, although neither Labour nor the Conservatives appear to be making significant gains.
The poll also finds growing public concern about the influence of large political donations, with Reform now viewed as the party most influenced by wealthy donors.
Reform leads despite slipping back
Reform remains the largest party on 24%, down two points since last week and its lowest vote share in an Opinium/Observer poll since January 2025. Labour follows on 19%, with the Conservatives close behind on 18%. The Greens continue to rise, reaching 16%, while the Liberal Democrats stand on 12%.
Nigel Farage’s approval rating has fallen sharply to net -27, comfortably his lowest rating of this Parliament. Elsewhere, Kemi Badenoch improves to -3, Ed Davey remains on -5, Andy Burnham stands on -8, Zack Polanski improves slightly to -16, and Keir Starmer falls to -45.
Farage’s decline is also reflected in his leadership attributes. His weakest ratings are on being trustworthy (-32), looking like a Prime Minister in waiting (-26), and being trusted to take big decisions (-24).
Donations row damages Reform’s image
Public concern about the influence of money in politics remains widespread.
A majority (56%) believe large political donations give wealthy individuals and organisations too much influence over politics, while just 23% believe they are an acceptable part of democracy provided they are transparent and follow the rules.
Against that backdrop, Reform is now seen as the party most influenced by wealthy donors or powerful organisations. Just over half (53%) say this applies to Reform, ahead of the Conservatives (50%) and Labour (49%).
Commentary
Opinium’s James Crouch said: “For the first time this Parliament, Nigel Farage looks politically vulnerable. Reform’s vote share has fallen into the low 20s, his personal ratings have hit a new low, and the standards row appears to be taking a real toll. The question now is whether Labour or the Conservatives can capitalise.”
Opinium conducted a nationally and politically representative survey of 2,050 UK adults between 7th and 10th July 2026.