Voting intention: 6th May 2026
See the full data tables here.
Reform UK continues to lead Opinium’s latest voting intention poll, maintaining a sizeable advantage over both Labour and the Conservatives as pressure grows on Keir Starmer following Labour’s difficult local election results.
The poll also points to deep unease with Labour’s leadership. Starmer’s approval ratings remain near record lows, and a majority of voters now believe he should step down. Against that backdrop, Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham emerges as the public’s clear preferred successor to the Labour leadership.
Reform retains lead as Starmer ratings remain low
Reform UK leads the poll on 28% (+1), followed by Labour on 19% (no change), the Conservatives on 18% (no change), the Greens on 16% (+1), and the Liberal Democrats on 11% (-1).
Keir Starmer’s personal ratings remain particularly weak, with a net approval score of -43. Rachel Reeves also records a very low rating at -42, while Nigel Farage stands on -18 and Kemi Badenoch on -10. Ed Davey continues to have the strongest ratings among the major party leaders at -5.
Voters are also unconvinced by the current leadership options available. Asked who would make the better Prime Minister, voters were split evenly between Starmer and Badenoch, while Starmer and Farage were tied on 28% each when compared directly.
More than half of respondents (56%) believe Starmer should resign as Labour leader, compared with 26% who believe he should remain.
Among the wider political figures tested, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour figure with clearly positive public perceptions, while several cabinet ministers continue to struggle with negative ratings.
Andy Burnham emerges as voters’ preferred Labour successor
Asked who they would most like to replace Keir Starmer as Labour leader and Prime Minister, voters were most likely to choose Andy Burnham (18%). Angela Rayner followed on 5%, with Ed Miliband on 4%.
Burnham was also the only potential Labour leadership candidate to achieve a positive net acceptability rating among the public (+20). By contrast, Rachel Reeves recorded the lowest score at -31.
The Greater Manchester Mayor also led across several leadership characteristics tested in the poll. Voters were most likely to say Burnham “understands the concerns of people like me”, “is most in touch with ordinary people”, “would be the strongest leader”, and “would represent the most real change”.
The findings suggest that while Labour faces mounting dissatisfaction with its current leadership, there is no clear consensus around a parliamentary successor — with Burnham’s popularity complicated by the fact he is not currently an MP.
Economic pessimism continues to dominate
Public sentiment on the economy remains overwhelmingly negative. Nearly two thirds (63%) expect the UK economy to worsen over the next 12 months, while only 10% believe it will improve.
Concerns over living costs also remain widespread. Nine in ten (91%) say grocery costs have increased over the past year, while 85% say the overall cost of living has risen. More than 8 in 10 also report increases in energy bills and council tax.
On economic competence, voters continue to favour the Conservatives over Labour on key measures including running the economy, setting tax levels and improving personal finances. Labour retains an advantage only on improving public services.
Public concern over antisemitism remains high
Nearly half (49%) of UK adults say antisemitism is common in Britain today, while only 16% say it is uncommon.
Among political parties, Labour is seen as most likely to have a problem with antisemitism, according to 42% of respondents. Reform UK follows on 38%, ahead of the Greens (33%), Conservatives (27%) and Liberal Democrats (20%).
The public also gave mixed verdicts on party leaders’ responses to recent antisemitic attacks. Kemi Badenoch received the strongest net approval score (+6), followed by Ed Davey (+2). Keir Starmer scored -12, while Green leader Zack Polanski recorded the lowest rating at -17.
Reform’s migrant detention policy divides voters
Opinion is split over Reform UK’s proposal to prioritise migrant detention centres in areas that voted Green while avoiding areas represented by Reform MPs or councils.
More voters view the policy as unacceptable (45%) than acceptable (34%), although a substantial minority support the proposal. Around one in five remain undecided.
The policy also appears politically risky. One third (33%) say it makes them less likely to vote Reform, compared with 22% who say it makes them more likely. Most respondents, however, say it would make no difference to their vote.
Commentary
James Crouch, Head of Policy and Public Affairs at Opinium, said:
After bruising local election losses, this week’s Opinium poll shows how exposed Labour has become. Keir Starmer’s ratings remain near rock bottom, with most voters saying he should step aside.
Labour’s bigger problem is that the public’ preferred successor is Andy Burnham, who is not currently an MP and has no easy route back to the Commons. This leaves Labour with both a leadership crisis and no obvious reset.
Opinium conducted a nationally and politically representative survey of 2,051 UK adults between 6th May – 8th May 2026.