Voting intention: 5 August 2026
See the full data tables here.
Labour continues to hold a narrow lead in this month’s voting intention poll, with Reform UK remaining close behind and the Conservatives still some way back in third place. The headline voting figures show little movement overall, suggesting a relatively stable political picture despite continued competition between the three largest parties.
At the same time, Andy Burnham’s personal ratings remain notably stronger than those of rival party leaders. While the public remains divided on the direction of the government, Burnham continues to enjoy a clear advantage on leadership measures and Best Prime Minister comparisons.
Voting intention and leader ratings
Labour remains in first place on 27%, unchanged since the previous poll. Reform UK are close behind on 25%, up one point, while the Conservatives also gain a point to 19%. The Greens remain on 12%, and the Liberal Democrats fall two points to 10%.
Andy Burnham continues to be the most positively rated political leader tested. He records a +16 net approval rating, with 37% approving of the way he is handling his job as Prime Minister and 21% disapproving. By contrast, Kemi Badenoch’s ratings have slipped into negative territory at -5, while Nigel Farage remains on -25.
Burnham has also strengthened his lead in head-to-head Best Prime Minister measures, extending his advantage over both Badenoch and Farage.
Among the remaining leaders, Ed Davey’s ratings have fallen to -4 net approval, while Green Party leader Zack Polanski remains heavily net negative at -23. Chancellor John Healey records a net approval rating of -4, although more than a quarter of respondents say they do not know enough to offer a view.
Mixed assessments of the Burnham government
Public opinion remains finely balanced on the Labour government under Andy Burnham. Around a third of respondents (35%) say they feel optimistic, while a similar proportion (32%) are pessimistic. A further 27% feel neither optimistic nor pessimistic.
When asked whether Burnham’s priorities are the right ones for the country, opinion is similarly mixed. Nearly three in ten (29%) believe he has the right priorities, compared with 21% who think he has the wrong priorities. A further 30% say he has a mix of both right and wrong priorities.
Health and the NHS is the issue most commonly identified as one of the government’s top priorities (35%), followed by the economy (31%) and immigration (28%). One in five respondents say they are unsure what the government’s priorities are.
Optimism on opportunities and social care, concern on immigration and living costs
Looking ahead, the public sees some areas where the Burnham government could deliver improvements, but expectations vary considerably by issue.
The most positive expectations are around opportunities for young people, where 34% think things will improve compared with 24% who expect them to get worse. Social care is another relative strength, with more people expecting improvement (30%) than deterioration (25%).
However, respondents remain sceptical on some of the issues that have dominated political debate in recent years. More people think the cost of living will worsen (40%) than improve (23%), while views on irregular immigration are even more pessimistic, with 37% expecting it to get worse and only 19% expecting it to improve.
Opinion is also divided on economic growth, housing affordability and the NHS, with no clear consensus emerging that conditions will improve.
The public sees social care funding as unfair
Social care emerges as a significant policy challenge. The issues most frequently identified as problems in England’s social care system are affordability (32%), delays and backlogs in accessing care (29%), and rising demand on services (26%).
A majority of the public (53%) believes the current model of funding social care is unfair, while only 19% think it is fair.
There is also strong support for reform. Large and almost identical proportions favour either a system where social care is free at the point of use and funded through taxation (36%) or a means-tested model where people contribute less towards their own care (36%). Very few support maintaining the current system unchanged (7%).
What the findings suggest
This month’s poll points to a broadly stable electoral landscape, with Labour retaining a modest lead but facing continued pressure from Reform UK. While Andy Burnham’s personal ratings remain comparatively strong and he maintains a sizeable Best Prime Minister advantage, the public remains divided on the government’s overall direction and unconvinced that it will deliver improvements across some of the country’s most pressing challenges, particularly immigration and the cost of living.
Opinium conducted a nationally and politically representative survey of 2,050 UK adults between 5 and 8 August 2026.