Voting intention: 4th November 2026
See the full data tables here.
Labour maintains a seven-point lead over Reform UK in Opinium’s latest poll for the Observer, despite both parties seeing their vote shares fall slightly. Andy Burnham also remains the only major party leader with a positive net approval rating.
Beyond the headline political trackers, the polling reveals a public divided over whether Britain should apologise for its role in the transatlantic slave trade, but firmly opposed to financial reparations. Voters also express support for some of the government’s proposed changes to migrant settlement rules, while majorities favour requiring the Duchy of Cornwall and Prince William to pay tax under legally mandated arrangements.
Labour maintains seven-point lead over Reform
Labour falls two points to 28%, maintaining a seven-point advantage over Reform UK, which drops one point to 21%. The Conservatives remain unchanged on 20%, while the Greens rise three points to 11% and the Liberal Democrats remain on 10%.
🌹 Labour: 28% (-2)
➡️ Reform UK: 21% (-1)
🌳 Conservatives: 20% (n/c)
🌍 Greens: 11% (+3)
🔶 Liberal Democrats: 10% (n/c)
Andy Burnham remains the only major party leader with a positive net approval rating, although his score falls two points to +5. Kemi Badenoch slips to -1, while Ed Davey improves to -5.
Nigel Farage remains among the least popular leaders at -27, while Zack Polanski records the lowest rating at -30.
Burnham also maintains clear Best Prime Minister leads. Against Badenoch, 41% choose Burnham compared with 22% for the Conservative leader. Against Farage, Burnham leads by 47% to 22%.
Public divided over slavery apology but firmly against reparations
The public remains divided over whether the UK Government should formally apologise for Britain’s role in the transatlantic slave trade.
Around a third (32%) support an apology, while 36% oppose it and 23% neither support nor oppose the proposal.
There are substantial political differences. Green, Liberal Democrat and Labour voters are more likely to support an apology than oppose one, while Conservative and Reform voters are more likely to oppose it.
However, there is much clearer opposition to the UK paying financial reparations to Caribbean countries. Nearly three in five (58%) oppose reparations, including 45% who strongly oppose them, compared with just 15% who support the proposal.
Green voters are the only major party’s supporters among whom support for reparations outweighs opposition. Even among Labour voters, opposition is substantially higher than support.
Majority backs applying longer settlement rules to migrants already in the UK
The public is more likely to consider it fair than unfair to apply the government’s proposed ten-year wait for permanent settlement to migrants already living in the UK on a five-year route.
Just over half (51%) say applying the change retrospectively would be fair, compared with 35% who think it would be unfair.
However, voters also support allowing migrants to qualify for settlement sooner based on their skills and contributions.
More than two-thirds (68%) think having specialist skills or professional qualifications, such as being a doctor or nurse, should help someone qualify sooner. Similar proportions support faster settlement for those who have regularly paid tax and National Insurance (65%) or worked in public services (63%).
Other factors attracting majority support include having lived legally in the UK for at least five years (57%), speaking English to a high standard (57%) and entering through a legal migration route (57%).
There are also differences in how voters think particular occupations should be treated. Six in ten (61%) believe doctors and nurses should be able to apply for settlement after five years or less, compared with 39% for hospitality workers, 38% for construction workers and 36% for entrepreneurs starting businesses.
Majority wants Duchy of Cornwall to pay tax
The polling also finds substantial public support for changing the tax arrangements applying to the Duchy of Cornwall and Prince William.
Two-thirds (66%) believe the Duchy should be required to pay capital gains tax on profits from selling land, property or other assets, compared with 15% who think its current exemption should remain.
Meanwhile, 56% think Prince William should be legally required to pay income tax on the money he receives from the Duchy, rather than continuing with the current voluntary arrangement, which 31% consider acceptable.
Climate change remains a concern, but voters resist policies that impose economic costs
More than four in five (83%) believe man-made climate change is a real issue, including 55% who think its effects are as serious as commonly described. A further 28% recognise climate change as real but believe its effects are exaggerated.
Around a third (35%) think the government is underreacting to climate change, compared with 22% who believe it is overreacting and 25% who think it has the balance about right.
However, support for action depends heavily on the potential costs involved.
Four in ten (40%) support climate policies that would limit how often people could fly abroad, compared with 29% who oppose them. The public is almost evenly divided on measures limiting meat consumption, with 36% supporting and 37% opposing them.
By contrast, policies that would negatively affect the economy are opposed by 44% and supported by 21%. Opposition is even greater when policies would negatively affect people’s personal finances, with 48% opposed and 21% supportive.
The polling also finds that Labour is preferred to the Conservatives on all four climate and energy issues tested, including reducing energy bills, responding to climate change, reducing pollution and investing in future energy generation. However, substantial proportions of voters choose neither party.
US midterm elections dominate the week’s news
The US midterm elections were the most widely followed story of the week, with 77% saying they had heard at least something about them, including 45% who had heard a lot.
Cyber-attacks affecting supermarket refrigeration systems across Europe were also widely noticed, with 71% hearing about the story.
Seven in ten (70%) had heard about Andy Burnham opening discussions over a possible apology for Britain’s role in slavery, while 65% had heard about King Charles addressing Commonwealth leaders.
Overall, the latest polling shows Labour retaining a substantial voting intention lead and Burnham continuing to outperform other party leaders personally. Beyond Westminster voting intentions, the findings reveal considerable differences in public attitudes towards the government’s policy agenda, with support for recognising migrants’ contributions and reforming royal taxation sitting alongside strong opposition to slavery reparations and climate measures that impose financial costs.
Opinium conducted a nationally and politically representative survey of 2,050 UK adults aged 18+ between 4th and 6th November 2026.