Voting intention: 3rd June 2026
See the full data tables here.
As Reform extends its lead in voting intention and Keir Starmer remains very unpopular, voters appear sceptical about Labour’s current leadership. New polling suggests that not only does Tony Blair compare favourably with today’s Labour figures, but many voters struggle to identify a clear successor capable of reversing the party’s fortunes.
The findings also highlight growing support for electoral reform, continued concerns about the influence of wealthy donors in politics, and a fragmented political landscape in which large numbers of voters feel represented by neither major party.
Reform extends lead as Starmer remains unpopular
Reform UK leads voting intention on 29%, up two points since last month. This is the highest Reform share since early March. Labour remains on 20%, while the Conservatives are on 17%. The Greens stand on 14% and the Liberal Democrats on 11%.
Keir Starmer’s approval rating remains deeply negative at net -42, although this represents a slight improvement on the previous poll. Kemi Badenoch continues her recent recovery and now stands on net -4 (which her joint highest score ever), while Nigel Farage and Zack Polanski are both on net -19.
On the Best Prime Minister question, Badenoch leads Starmer by two points (23% to 21%), while Farage also holds a narrow lead over the Prime Minister (27% to 26%). In both cases, large numbers of respondents choose neither option.
Among the main party leaders, Badenoch is now the least unpopular, with Starmer and Chancellor Rachel Reeves remaining the most negatively rated major political figures.
Public think Blair would outperform Labour’s current leadership
Following Tony Blair’s intervention in the debate over Labour’s future direction, voters are more likely to believe he would make a better Prime Minister than any of Labour’s leading figures.
Blair holds a substantial advantage over Keir Starmer, with 39% saying he would do a better job compared with 16% who think he would do worse. He also leads Wes Streeting comfortably and is narrowly preferred to Andy Burnham.
The findings suggest that many voters remain unconvinced that Labour’s current leadership generation offers a clear improvement on the party’s recent past.
Mixed verdict on former Prime Ministers
When asked to assess the performance of Prime Ministers from the last three decades, voters give their most positive verdicts to Margaret Thatcher and John Major.
Tony Blair receives a net rating of -6, making him less popular than Thatcher (+14) and Major (+5), but more positively viewed than every Prime Minister who followed him.
At the other end of the rankings, Liz Truss receives by far the most negative assessment, with three quarters of respondents saying she did a bad job as Prime Minister.
The findings underline how difficult it remains for Labour to draw clear political advantage from nostalgia for previous governments, even as voters compare current leaders unfavourably with Blair.
Support for a more proportional voting system
As Britain’s multi-party politics becomes increasingly fragmented, public opinion appears to be shifting towards electoral reform.
More people prioritise a voting system that reflects parties’ vote shares accurately (35%) than one that prioritises producing strong governments able to act quickly (31%).
When asked directly, 43% support moving to a more proportional voting system, compared with 25% who favour retaining First Past the Post. A further quarter remain unsure.
The survey also suggests Labour and Green voters would be relatively comfortable with coalition arrangements between the two parties, while attitudes towards a potential Conservative-Reform coalition are notably more mixed.
Public sceptical about influence of wealthy donors
A majority of the public (53%) believe large political donations give wealthy individuals and organisations too much influence over politics.
The Conservatives are most likely to be seen as excessively influenced by donors, followed closely by Labour and Reform UK. The Green Party is the only major party not viewed as being overly influenced by wealthy interests.
The findings suggest concerns about money in politics extend across party lines rather than being concentrated on any one political party.
Badenoch gave best response on Henry Nowak case according to the public, Nigel Farage the worst
Following the release of bodycam footage relating to the murder of Henry Nowak, voters are most likely to approve of Kemi Badenoch’s response to the case.
Badenoch records a net approval score of +12 on her handling of the issue. Ed Davey is marginally positive, while Keir Starmer, Zack Polanski and Nigel Farage all receive net negative ratings. Farage receives the weakest assessment overall, with more respondents disapproving than approving of his response.
Commentary
Opinium’s James Crouch said:
“For all the debate sparked by Tony Blair and the ‘hot essay summer’, the public still lean towards saying he was a bad rather than a good prime minister. Perhaps more worrying for Labour, they also struggle to see any of the party’s current leadership contenders as offering a markedly better alternative.”
Opinium conducted a nationally and politically representative survey of 2,050 UK adults between 3rd and 5th June 2026.