Voting intention: 30 September 2026
See the full data tables here.
Following Andy Burnham’s first Party Conference as Prime Minister, Labour are leading in the polls, with their highest rating since November 2024, according to the latest polling from Opinium.
Labour pull ahead as Burnham stays the only leader in positive territory
Labour is on 30%, up two points since last week, followed by Reform on 25% (+1), the Conservatives on 17% (N/C), the Greens on 11% (+1) and the Liberal Democrats on 9% (-1).
Andy Burnham remains the only political leader with net positive approval figures (+8), up one point from last week. Kemi Badenoch sits at net -1 (+2), while Ed Davey’s approval rating has dropped three points to net -6. Nigel Farage (-22, +3) and Zack Polanski (-22, +2) remain the most unpopular party leaders.
On who would make the best Prime Minister, Burnham leads Badenoch by 21 points and has a similar lead over Farage.
Half of UK public support Burnham’s National Care Service announcement
Nearly half (48%) of UK adults support the idea of a National Care Service free at the point of use funded by general taxation, with only 15% opposed. The proposal has net support among voters of all the major parties, with the smallest margin amongst Reform voters (+1).
Burnham’s proposed change to the triple lock also has net support among the public, with 40% in favour, 23% opposed, and 22% who neither support nor oppose it. There are similar levels of support across all age groups, except among over 65s, where support drops to three in 10 (31%), with 42% opposed.
A third (34%) of the public agree that the change to the triple lock is a fair trade-off for the National Care Service, while 27% think it is unfair and 20% think it is neither fair nor unfair.
The public think Brexit has done more harm than good, as Burnham keeps all options on the table
Over half (54%) of the public think Andy Burnham is taking the right approach to Britain’s future relationship with the EU by considering all options, with just a quarter (25%) saying it is the wrong approach.
Over two in five (46%) think that Brexit has done the UK much more harm than good, while only 13% think it has done much more good than harm. One in five (21%) think Brexit has done an equal amount of harm and good.
Public split on whether and when electoral system reform should happen
The public are split on changing the electoral system, with a quarter (26%) saying they do want to see a change to the voting system. Around one in ten (12%) think the change should come before the next election (12%), while 14% think it should only be a commitment in the next Labour manifesto (14%).
One in five (21%) support reviewing the vote system but do not think that Labour should yet commit to changing it, and another one in five (22%) think the current system should remain in place. Three in 10 (29%) do not know.
James Crouch, Head of Policy and Public Affairs at Opinium, said Burnham had shown he can dominate the political agenda:
“Andy Burnham clearly knows how to deliver a commanding conference speech, backed by major policy announcements, that dominates the political agenda. The question now is simple: can Kemi Badenoch seize the country’s attention next week in anything like the same way?”
Opinium conducted a nationally and politically representative survey of 2,050 UK adults between 30th September and 2nd October 2026 via online panel.