Voting intention: 23rd September 2026
See the full data tables here.
As Labour prepares for its first party conference under Prime Minister Andy Burnham, Opinium’s latest poll suggests the party enters conference season in a relatively stable position. Labour continues to lead the voting intention figures, while Burnham remains the only major party leader with a positive approval rating.
However, the polling also highlights an important challenge for Labour. While Burnham’s personal ratings are broadly positive and the public are evenly divided on the government’s performance so far, perceptions of the Labour Party itself remain considerably weaker.
Voting intention and leader ratings
Labour leads the latest voting intention poll on 28% (+1), four points ahead of Reform UK on 24% (no change). The Conservatives are on 17% (-1), while both the Liberal Democrats and Greens are on 10%.
Andy Burnham remains the only party leader with a positive net approval rating, increasing three points to +7 since last week. Kemi Badenoch has improved to -3, narrowly ahead of Ed Davey on -4. Nigel Farage remains the least popular major party leader on -25, with Green Party leader Zack Polanski close behind on -24.
Burnham also maintains a substantial advantage on the question of who would make the best Prime Minister, leading Badenoch by 20 points and Farage by 22 points.
While Burnham’s personal ratings remain relatively strong, there are signs of softening compared with earlier polling. He continues to score positively on attributes including likeability, competence and having the nation’s best interests at heart, but ratings have declined across most measures since July.
Personal appeal outpaces Labour’s brand
A recurring theme in this month’s findings is the gap between perceptions of the Prime Minister and perceptions of his party.
Burnham receives positive net ratings on most personal attributes tested, particularly being likeable (+21), competent (+16) and having the nation’s best interests at heart (+14). However, Labour records negative scores across every attribute measured.
The party performs weakest on representing what most people think (-18), having similar views to people’s own (-16) and being trusted to take big decisions (-15). Despite this, over a third (35%) say their opinion of Labour has improved since Burnham became Prime Minister, compared with 19% who say it has worsened.
A mixed verdict on the Burnham government
The public remain divided on whether the Burnham government has been a success so far. Two in five (40%) say it has been successful, while 38% disagree and around a quarter are unsure.
Asked about specific areas of performance, respondents give the government its strongest ratings for keeping the Labour Party united (+13), providing strong leadership (+9) and being honest about the challenges facing the country (+9).
The government performs less well on rebuilding trust in politics (-6), while views are evenly split on whether it has provided competent government.
First steps on the international stage
Burnham’s first meeting with US President Donald Trump has received a cautiously positive response from the public, although many remain undecided. Around a quarter (24%) believe the meeting was a success, compared with 14% who think it was a failure. One-third say they do not know.
The survey also finds the public generally continues to view key Western allies positively. Australia, France and Germany are all seen as strong allies of the UK, while the United States retains a positive net ally rating overall.
When asked about the proposed transfer of sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius, 40% believe the deal should go ahead. Around one in five (21%) think it should be cancelled regardless of the United States’ position, while a third remain unsure.
Conference season begins with Labour in the strongest position
Looking at perceptions of the parties’ recent weeks, Labour is viewed as having had the strongest start to conference season. Around a third (32%) say Labour has had a good week, compared with 26% who say it has had a bad one, giving the party a net score of +6.
By contrast, Reform UK receives the most negative assessment. More than two in five (42%) say Reform has had a bad week, compared with just 18% who think it has had a good one, resulting in a net score of -25.
Commentary
Commenting on the findings, James Crouch, Head of Policy and Public Affairs at Opinium, said:
“As Andy Burnham heads into his first party conference as Labour leader, the message from the polling seems to be: so far, so good. The prime minister comes across as the most likeable and competent of the current leaders, but the challenge for Labour in Liverpool will be converting his personal appeal into an agenda that could sustain the party through to the next general election.”
The latest polling points to a political landscape in which Labour retains an advantage, helped by the Prime Minister’s stronger personal standing. The key test for the party will be whether it can translate that goodwill into improved perceptions of Labour itself and greater confidence in the government’s ability to deliver lasting change.
Opinium conducted a nationally and politically representative survey of 2,050 UK adults between 23rd-25th September 2026.