Voting Intention: 21 October 2026
See full data tables here.
Labour continues to lead the polls, finishing 8 points ahead of Reform UK. Andy Burnham remains the only party leader with a positive net approval rating and holds a commanding lead over both Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage on who would make the better Prime Minister.
With the Autumn Budget due next week, the public are pessimistic. Many expect the Budget to be unfair, most think the cost of living has risen, and the NHS is the clear priority for extra spending.
Voting Intention
Labour is on 30% (+1), ahead of Reform UK on 22% (-2). The Conservatives are unchanged on 20%, the Greens are up 1 point to 10%, and the Liberal Democrats are steady on 9%.
Andy Burnham’s net approval is +6, with 38% approving of the way he is handling his job as Prime Minister and 32% disapproving. Kemi Badenoch is on -1, Ed Davey is on -7 and John Healey on -10. Nigel Farage’s net approval has fallen 2 points to -28. Zack Polanski is the least approved leader at -32 (-3).
On Best Prime Minister, Burnham leads Badenoch by 40% to 21%, with 24% choosing neither. He leads Farage by 41% to 21%.
Burnham is the only politician with a positive net trust score on economic and financial matters (+5), with 45% saying they trust him. Badenoch is next at -7, followed by Davey (-11), Healey (-15), and Shadow Chancellor Andrew Griffith (-19). Polanski (-35) and Farage (-36) are the least trusted.
Tax and spending
When asked about the Budget, most voters want to keep taxes and spending where they are (30%). Slightly more want lower taxes and less spending (28%) than higher taxes and more spending (23%). The NHS is the top priority for extra spending (60%), ahead of cost-of-living support (44%) and armed forces and defence (24%).
International aid is by far the most popular area for cuts, chosen by 49%, ahead of local government, mayors and devolution (32%) and welfare and benefits (30%). Very few want to see spending reduced on the NHS (3%), schools (4%) or social care (5%).
If the government were to raise taxes over the next 12 months, the public’s preferred areas to target were windfall taxes (31%) and businesses taxes (27%) . Income Tax and National Insurance are seen as the worst place to raise money (44%), followed by taxes on spending such as VAT (33%).
On balance, the public expect the Budget to be unfair (34%) rather than fair (17%). Nearly half (49%) are unsure.
Jackdaw gas field approval wins broad support
More people support the government’s decision to approve drilling at the Jackdaw gas field in the North Sea (52%) than oppose it (15%). Support is strongest among Conservative (+68) and Reform UK (+61) voters. Labour voters are also supportive (+33). Green voters are the only group opposed (-20).
Looking ahead
Labour keeps a steady lead, and Burnham is the only leader in positive territory on both approval and economic trust. Ahead of the Budget, the public are anxious about the economy, protective of the NHS and wary of tax rises on earned income. They have little appetite for cutting public services other than international aid.
Opinium conducted a nationally and politically representative survey of 2,050 UK adults between 21st – 23rd October 2026.