Voting intention: 1st July 2026
See the full data tables here.
Andy Burnham’s first major speech as Labour leader appears to have made a broadly positive first impression on the public, with voters responding favourably to both his personal leadership qualities and the policies he outlined for government. While many people are still forming an opinion, those who have engaged with Burnham’s vision are generally more positive than negative.
The findings also suggest that Labour’s leadership change has yet to transform the wider political landscape. Reform continues to lead voting intention, while Keir Starmer’s final approval rating as Prime Minister remains deeply negative and the Conservatives have narrowed Labour’s advantage.
Reform remains ahead as Burnham begins his leadership
Reform UK continues to lead voting intention on 26%. Labour is on 20%, while the Conservatives rise to 19% (their highest score since April 2025). The Greens stand on 14% and the Liberal Democrats on 11%.
Note: Following the Makerfield by-election, we are reviewing whether to include Restore Britain in our regular voting intention polling. Last week’s poll differed from our usual Opinium/Observer series as we tested one approach to prompting for the party. We are currently evaluating the results and will publish further details on our methodology shortly. For the time being, the chart below shows our usual headline voting intention without Restore being prompted for in our main vote choice question.
Keir Starmer’s final approval rating as Prime Minister stands at net -43, while Rachel Reeves remains on -41. Kemi Badenoch improves slightly to -6, Nigel Farage records a four-point improvement to -19, and Ed Davey remains on -5. Andy Burnham begins his leadership on a net approval rating of -7.
On the Best Prime Minister question, Badenoch leads Starmer by four points (24% to 20%), while Starmer and Farage are tied on 27%.
Although Burnham’s overall approval rating is slightly negative, his personal leadership attributes are considerably stronger, suggesting many voters view him more positively than they do established national politicians.
Burnham’s leadership qualities receive a positive reception
Asked about a range of leadership characteristics, Andy Burnham records positive net ratings on 10 of the 15 attributes tested.
His strongest scores are for being likeable (+12), competent (+10), looking like “a Prime Minister in waiting” (+9), and being a strong leader (+9). He also scores positively on being decisive, being in touch with ordinary people and being able to get things done.
His weaker ratings relate to whether he shares voters’ views (-13), represents what most people think (-9), and can be trusted to take big decisions (-3), although these remain considerably stronger than equivalent ratings typically recorded by current party leaders.
Public responds positively to Burnham’s vision
Among those aware of it, Burnham’s speech outlining his vision for the country is viewed positively.
Three in ten (30%) say it was a good speech, compared with 19% who think it was bad. However, around half of the public either have not heard about the speech or do not yet have a view.
Similarly, 32% believe Burnham has the right ideas for Britain’s future, compared with 25% who think his ideas are wrong, while many remain unfamiliar with his proposals.
His plans to devolve more power away from Westminster also receive cautious backing. Around a third (32%) believe local mayors and councils are better placed than central government to improve economic opportunities in their communities, although many respondents remain undecided.
Burnham’s policy agenda enjoys broad support
Every major policy proposal tested from Burnham’s Manchester speech receives net positive support.
The most popular measures include increasing investment in struggling towns, coastal communities and rural areas (+58), prioritising economic growth across every part of the UK rather than concentrating investment in London and the South East (+55), using government procurement to support British businesses (+54), and reforming business rates to support pubs and high streets (+54).
Giving local areas greater control over transport, housing, energy and employment support also receives strong backing, while even the least popular proposal—moving some government departments to Manchester—is viewed positively overall.
The findings suggest Burnham’s agenda of economic decentralisation and regional investment resonates across much of the electorate.
Public divided over defence spending
Opinion is more mixed on the government’s latest defence announcements.
Around a third (32%) believe the additional £15 billion for defence is about the right amount, while opinion is split over whether spending should be higher or lower. The public is also unconvinced by the government’s decision to fund the increase through cancelling planned road and energy projects, with 44% believing this is the wrong approach.
When asked where additional defence investment should be prioritised, cyber security and AI capabilities emerge as the most common choice, followed by drones and autonomous systems and military personnel.
Summary
Opinium conducted a nationally and politically representative survey of 2,050 UK adults between 1st and 3rd July 2026.