Voting intention: 16th September 2026
See the full data tables here.
Labour maintains its lead over Reform UK in Opinium’s latest poll for the Observer, while Andy Burnham remains the only political leader tested with a positive net approval rating.
This week’s polling also looks at public attitudes towards immigration, Ed Davey and the Liberal Democrats, political donations, sanctions targeting Israeli settlements in the West Bank, and the recent Commons vote on assisted dying.
Labour maintains its lead over Reform
Labour remains unchanged on 27%, three points ahead of Reform UK, which falls one point to 24%. The Conservatives are on 18%, while the Greens and Liberal Democrats stand at 11% and 10% respectively.
🌹 Labour: 27% (n/c)
➡️ Reform UK: 24% (-1)
🌳 Conservatives: 18% (-1)
🌍 Greens: 11% (n/c)
🔶 Liberal Democrats: 10% (n/c)
Andy Burnham remains the only politician tested with a positive net approval rating, although his score falls one point to +5. Kemi Badenoch drops six points to -6, while Ed Davey stands at -8. Nigel Farage (-28) and Zack Polanski (-23) continue to record the lowest ratings among the party leaders tested.
Burnham also maintains clear Best Prime Minister leads, holding a 19-point advantage over Badenoch and a 20-point advantage over Farage.
Davey seen as likeable, but few view him as a Prime Minister in waiting
Ed Davey’s strongest personal attribute is being likeable, on a net score of +6. He also records positive scores for having the nation’s best interests at heart (+3), competence (+1) and sticking to his principles (+1).
However, voters are less likely to see him as representing what most people think (-15) or sharing their own views (-18). His weakest rating is on looking like a Prime Minister in waiting, at -29.
The Liberal Democrats themselves receive their strongest scores for being tolerant (+9) and united (+7). Their biggest weakness is readiness for government: 16% agree the party is ready for government compared with 47% who disagree, a net score of -30.
Reform judged to have had the worst week
As conference season continues, voters were asked whether each of the main parties had experienced a good or bad week.
Reform receives the weakest assessment by a substantial margin: 48% say the party had a bad week compared with 20% who say it had a good one, giving a net score of -28.
None of the other parties receives a positive score either. Labour records -4, the Liberal Democrats -4, the Conservatives -7 and the Greens -9, although large proportions of voters say they do not know how the Conservatives, Liberal Democrats or Greens have performed.
Majority backs a cap on individual political donations
More than half (54%) support introducing a cap on how much any one person can donate to a UK political party each year, while 15% oppose one.
Among those supporting a cap, the most common preference is £10,000 or less. The leading concern about very large individual donations is that donors could gain too much influence over politics, cited by 52%.
Asked specifically about an individual donating £36 million to a political party, 57% say this would be unacceptable and 20% acceptable. Reform voters are the exception, with 57% regarding a donation of this size as acceptable.
When asked about the £72 million in donations recently given to Reform UK, 47% say a donations cap should be introduced retrospectively, requiring Reform to return some or all of the money. A further 22% favour a cap but do not think it should apply retrospectively, while 14% think donations of this size should continue to be allowed.
Public supports new sanctions targeting West Bank settlements
Around two in five (38%) support the UK Government’s recently announced sanctions targeting Israeli settlements in the West Bank, while 16% oppose them. A further 23% neither support nor oppose the decision and 22% do not know.
Support outweighs opposition among Green, Liberal Democrat, Labour and Conservative voters. Reform voters are the only group among the parties tested where opposition is higher than support.
Majority says MPs made the wrong decision on assisted dying
Following the House of Commons vote not to pass legislation that would have legalised assisted dying, 53% of the public say MPs made the wrong decision.
Just over a quarter (27%) think MPs made the right decision in voting against the bill.
Boilerplate
Opinium conducted a nationally and politically representative survey of 2,050 UK adults between 16th and 18th September 2026.