Voting intention: 15th July 2026
See the full data tables here.
As Keir Starmer prepares to leave Downing Street, the public delivers a stark verdict on his premiership. Nearly seven in ten believe his government has not been a success, and almost half say their opinion of him deteriorated during his time in office.
Yet Labour itself appears to be recovering. The party records its highest vote share since April, narrowing Reform’s lead to just one point, while Andy Burnham enters office with stronger personal ratings than his predecessor and an early advantage over his rivals on who would make the best Prime Minister.
Labour closes the gap as Burnham prepares to take office
Reform remains narrowly ahead on 23%, down one point from last week, to its lowest score since 2024. Labour climbs three points to 22%, its highest vote share since April, while the Conservatives also gain ground, rising to 20% (their highest since April 2025). The Greens are on 14% and the Liberal Democrats on 11%.
Keir Starmer’s approval rating improves eight points to net -37 in his final week as Prime Minister, although he remains deeply unpopular. Andy Burnham begins his premiership on net -3, while Kemi Badenoch becomes the only major party leader in positive territory at +2. Nigel Farage remains on -26 and Ed Davey improves slightly to -2.
Burnham also starts with an advantage on the Best Prime Minister question, leading Kemi Badenoch by five points (30% to 25%) and Nigel Farage by 13 points (38% to 25%).
The latest polling suggests Labour’s change of leadership has provided an immediate lift, but the party still faces a highly competitive political landscape with Reform and the Conservatives close behind.
Public delivers harsh verdict on the Starmer government
As Starmer leaves office, the public’s assessment of his premiership is overwhelmingly negative.
Nearly seven in ten (69%) say his government has not been a success, while only 21% believe it has been successful. More strikingly, 48% say their opinion of Starmer became more negative during his time as Prime Minister, compared with just 15% whose opinion improved.
The Labour Party’s brand also suffered during its time in government. Almost half (48%) say their opinion of Labour became more negative after it entered office, while only 13% say it became more positive.
Compared with the previous Conservative administration under Rishi Sunak, two in five (41%) believe Starmer’s government performed worse, while only a quarter (25%) think it performed better.
Burnham inherits an uncertain economic landscape
The new Prime Minister takes office with voters divided over the direction of economic policy.
A quarter of the public believe taxes and spending on public services should increase, while the same proportion think both should be reduced. Around a third (32%) believe current levels are about right, highlighting the difficult fiscal choices facing the new government.
Asked about Burnham’s future decisions on tax rises and spending reductions, more respondents expect them to be unfair (35%) than fair (24%), although four in ten say it is too early to judge.
Among individual taxes, council tax is most commonly seen as too high (64%), followed by fuel duty (55%) and VAT (51%). By contrast, no tax attracts majority support for being increased, although the top rate of income tax comes closest.
No political leader commands trust on the economy
Despite Labour’s change in leadership, voters remain sceptical about politicians’ ability to manage the economy.
Every political figure tested records a negative net trust score on economic and financial matters. Ed Davey performs best on net -13, narrowly ahead of Kemi Badenoch and Andy Burnham, both on -14.
At the other end of the rankings, Rachel Reeves remains the least trusted figure on the economy at net -45, followed by Nigel Farage (-34) and Keir Starmer (-33). The findings suggest Burnham inherits an electorate that remains unconvinced by political leaders’ economic credibility across the board.
Commentary
Opinium’s James Crouch said:
“Starmer leaves office with a public verdict few prime ministers would envy. Most voters do not see his government as a success, and nearly half say their view of him deteriorated during his premiership. However, Labour’s improved polling shows voters may be distinguishing between the outgoing Prime Minister and the party itself. Burnham inherits an opportunity, but also a public that remains unconvinced any political leader can be trusted on the economy.”
Opinium conducted a nationally and politically representative survey of 2,050 UK adults between 15th and 17th July 2026.