Polling Results

See the full data tables here.

Labour continues to hold a narrow lead in Opinium’s latest voting intention poll, remaining ahead of Reform UK despite little movement in headline vote shares. While the voting intention picture is largely unchanged, the survey suggests Labour is benefiting from a broader improvement in how voters view the party under Andy Burnham’s leadership.

Alongside Labour’s steady polling position, Burnham remains the only major political figure with positive net approval ratings and continues to hold a substantial advantage over both Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage on the question of who would make the better Prime Minister.

Voting intention and leader ratings

Labour leads the voting intention poll on 27%, unchanged from the previous week, with Reform UK also unchanged on 25%. The Conservatives are on 18% (-1), while the Greens are on 11% (-1) and the Liberal Democrats on 10% (N/C).

Andy Burnham remains the most favourably viewed political leader tested, recording a net approval rating of +11, although this is down 5 points from last week. Kemi Badenoch remains only marginally negative on -4, while Ed Davey stands on -6. Nigel Farage (-28) and Zack Polanski (-24) continue to attract significantly higher levels of disapproval.

Burnham is not only the only leader with positive approval ratings, but maintains a clear lead as best PM, holding a net +20 lead over Badenoch as best Prime Minister and a net +22 lead over Farage.

The most notable movement in the survey comes from perceptions of the Labour Party itself. Compared with June, Labour has improved across every attribute tested, suggesting voters have become more positive about the party’s direction.

The largest gains have come on measures of unity, clarity of purpose and values. The share of voters agreeing that Labour is united has improved by +37 points since June, while perceptions that the party has a clear sense of purpose and knows what it stands for have improved by +25 and +24 points respectively.

Labour has also strengthened its position relative to the Conservatives. The party now leads on a range of measures including being in touch with ordinary people, being tolerant, having the nation’s best interests at heart and representing what most people think. While some attributes remain closely contested, the overall trend points to a significant improvement in Labour’s standing over recent months.

Public wants stronger action on climate resilience

Concerns about climate change and extreme weather remain widespread. Nearly two-thirds (63%) of adults believe the UK is badly prepared to deal with the impacts of climate change, while only 11% believe the country is well prepared.

There is also a strong appetite for greater action. Two-thirds (66%) think the UK should be doing more to respond to heatwaves and extreme weather, compared with just 4% who think it should do less.

The public is concerned about the impact of heatwaves across all facets of life. The areas where people are most concerned are water infrastructure (+59) food security (+53) and public health (+50).

Support for continued North Sea oil and gas production

The public appears broadly supportive of maintaining domestic oil and gas production. While around one in five (21%) oppose any new oil and gas development, a clear majority (61%) support approving new fields under at least some circumstances.

Views range from conditional support based on economic or energy security considerations to active encouragement of new development. Support is also evident when voters are asked about specific projects, with 54% backing approval of the Rosebank oil field and Jackdaw gas field, compared with 21% who oppose approval.

Prison overcrowding remains a key concern

A majority of voters favour keeping more offenders in custody, even if doing so creates additional pressure on prison capacity.

Just 19% believe the government’s current approach to early prisoner releases is the right one, while a further 10% think ministers should go even further. In contrast, 56% say the priority should be keeping more prisoners in custody for longer, regardless of the capacity challenges this may create.

When asked who is responsible for prison overcrowding, half of voters say both the current Labour government and the previous Conservative government share the blame equally (50%). More place responsibility solely on the previous Conservative government (22%) than solely on the current Labour government (7%).

Voters open to greater powers for metro mayors

The public is generally receptive to metro mayors playing a bigger role in decision-making across England.

Transport (+32) emerges as the area where voters are most supportive of mayors having greater influence, followed by housing (+28) and policing (+27). Attitudes are more mixed on taxation, where similar proportions favour increasing and reducing mayoral influence.

The findings suggest voters are broadly comfortable with further devolution of powers, particularly in areas linked to local services and infrastructure.

Conclusion

This week’s poll points to a relatively stable electoral landscape, with Labour retaining a narrow lead over Reform UK. However, beneath the headline voting figures, Labour’s improving reputation and Andy Burnham’s continued personal popularity suggest the party has strengthened its political position. At the same time, public concern about climate resilience, prison capacity and energy security highlights the range of policy challenges that continue to shape voter opinion.

Opinium conducted a nationally and politically representative survey of 2,050 UK adults between 12 and 14 August 2026.