Polling Results

UK: London Mayor voting intention – 28 April 2021

Sadiq Khan on course for second term in Opinium’s final London 2021 poll

Khan has 48% of the first round vote vs. 29% for Conservative candidate Shaun Bailey. Once second preferences are factored in, Khan’s share rises to 63% vs. 37% for Bailey. Liberal Democrat Louisa Porrit and Green candidate Siân Berry remain in close contention with each other for third place with 8% and 7% respectively. Reclaim party candidate Laurence Fox has 3% while Women’s Equality Party candidate Mandu Reid has 1%. 4% selected “another candidate”.

Fox’s placement is largely a result of him being a prompted option in this poll, replacing UKIP’s Peter Gammons. With 20 candidates, only a few of whom are serious and have major (or even minor) party backing, we have erred on the side of caution in terms of who to prompt for as simply showing a replica ballot paper has been proven to exaggerate support for minor candidates.

This represents a slight slippage for the Mayor since we began polling the campaign in March. In our first poll Khan was on track to win in the first round (something no previous mayor had managed) with 53% to 28% for Bailey. However, as concerns about the pandemic have started to recede, crime has overtaken ‘health / NHS’ as the most important issue now that concerns Londoners. Khan has strong approval figures for his handling of the pandemic (in fact they are stronger now than in March) whereas crime is the only issue where Shaun Bailey has drawn level with the incumbent when Londoners are asked whose approach they prefer.

Please find the full data tables here.

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