Polling Results

Political Polling – 31st October

31st October 2012

Labour have an 11 point lead with 41% to 30% for the Conservatives. This is up ever so slightly on the 9 point lead Labour had in our last survey while the Liberal Democrats are just behind UKIP on 9% and 10% respectively. Although the two contenders for third party have switched places frequently in polling over the last few months, this is now the fifth survey in a row to show UKIP either level with or ahead of the Lib Dems.

  • Ed Miliband’s post-conference bounce is very slowly receding but he is still viewed more positively than he was before his party conference. 27% of likely voters approve of his job performance while 39% disapprove giving him a net rating of -12%. This is slightly down on the -10% he recorded immediately after the Labour conference and still better than the -17% seen just before conference
  • Prime Minister David Cameron did not see much of a post-conference bounce with his net approval rating rising to -17% from -21%. His current rating is in between these two on -19%, based on 32% approving and 51% disapproving of his job performance
  • As usual, Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg’s ratings are starkly negative with 14% of likely voters approving and 60% disapproving, making his net rating -46%

This week, with the US Presidential Election approaching, we asked respondents which result would be best in terms of the impact on the UK.

  • Barack Obama was the overwhelming favourite with 59% choosing the current president and only 6% choosing his opponent Mitt Romney. 11% said neither candidate while 24% didn’t know
  • Interestingly, while Labour voters were firmly behind Obama (70% to 5%), only 13% of Conservative voters backed Romney despite him being the more conservative candidate
  • Romney’s most favourable region, unsurprisingly, was London where 13% backed him but this was still dwarfed by the 60% favouring Obama

Topline Voting Intention

Liberal Democrats9n/c
Other parties20n/c

Other Parties (breakdown)

Plaid Cymru0n/c

Approval ratings

% Approve% DisapproveNet ratingNet rating (own party)
David Cameron32%51%-19%+80%
Ed Miliband27%39%-12%+45%
Nick Clegg14%60%-46%+31%

Voting Intention Tracker

Opinium Research carried out an online survey of 1,966 GB adults aged 18+ from 31st October to 1st November 2012. Results have been weighted to nationally representative criteria.

Interview Method and Sample

This survey is conducted online by CAWI (computer aided web interviewing), using Opinium?s online research panel of circa 30,000 individuals. This research is run from a representative sample of GB adults (aged 18+ in England, Scotland and Wales). The sample is scientifically defined from pre-collected registration data containing gender, age (18-34, 35-54, and 55+), region (North East, North West, Yorkshire and Humberside, East Midlands, West Midlands, East of England, London, South East, South West, Wales, and Scotland), working status and social grade to match the latest published ONS figures.

Opinium also takes into account differential response rates from the different demographic groups, to ensure the sample is representative.

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