Opinium Voting Intention: 14th May 2025
Downloadable data tables from our latest voting intention poll can be found here.
James Crouch, head of public affairs and policy at Opinium, said:
“Trust in the two-party system is crumbling, and nowhere is that clearer than on immigration. Polling may show Keir Starmer echoed public concerns with his latest speech, but his stance risks alienating core supporters and splitting Labour’s vote on the issue before he convinces any Reform voters that he means business.”
Approval ratings for party leaders
Keir Starmer, Kemi Badenoch and Rachel Reeves net approval ratings are all unchanged since we last asked the public a fortnight ago. Nigel Farage however has seen a rise of 11 points in his approval rating (-17% to -6%) although still remain in net disapproval territory. Ed Davey has also seen a rise in approval ratings by 5 points becoming marginally approved of (-4% to +1%).
All members of the Labour cabinet remain very unpopular, having seen their approval ratings fall since we last asked about them at the start of January. Sadiq Khan’s approvals remain unchanged although he continues to be disapproved of by many.
*Changes for Starmer, Badenoch, Davey, Farage and Reeves from 30th April – 2nd May 2025. Remaining approvals come from 8th of January 2025
| 15th April | Approve | Neither | Disapprove | Don’t know | NET: Approve | NET: Approve changes |
| The way Keir Starmer is handling his job as Prime Minister | 21% | 17% | 55% | 6% | -34% | 0% |
| The way Kemi Badenoch is handling her job as leader of the Conservative Party | 19% | 29% | 39% | 12% | -20% | +1% |
| The way Ed Davey is handling his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats | 24% | 35% | 23% | 17% | 1% | +5% |
| The way Nigel Farage is handling his job as leader of Reform UK | 33% | 19% | 38% | 9% | -6% | +11% |
| The way Rachel Reeves is handling her job as Chancellor of the Exchequer | 17% | 19% | 54% | 11% | -37% | +1% |
| The way Yvette Cooper is handling her job as Home Secretary | 18% | 27% | 38% | 18% | -20% | -6% |
| The way David Lammy is handling his job as Foreign Secretary | 17% | 27% | 37% | 19% | -20% | -3% |
| The way Wes Streeting is handling his job as Health Secretary | 19% | 27% | 35% | 19% | -16% | -4% |
| The way Carla Denyer and Adrian Ramsay are handling their jobs as co-Leaders of the Greens | 16% | 36% | 20% | 28% | -3% | -5% |
| The way Sadiq Khan is handling his job as Mayor of London | 18% | 27% | 41% | 14% | -23% | 0% |
| The way Angela Rayner is handling her job as Deputy Prime Minister | 20% | 26% | 42% | 12% | -22% | -4% |
The results for who would make the best Prime Minister remains similar: 24% (-1) think Keir Starmer would be the best Prime Minister, while 13% (-2) say Kemi Badenoch. However there has been a rise in the number of people who think neither would be, with half now preferring neither of the main party leaders as prime minister (50%, +5). As a benchmark, this is approaching the levels at the end of the May Premiership: on 3-5 July 2019, 58% thought neither Theresa May nor Jeremy Corbyn would be the best prime minister.
Sections this week
- What made the news
- Immigration
What made the news this week?
| News story | Heard a lot | Heard a little | Not really heard anything | NET: Heard at all |
| The 80th anniversary of VE day (the end of World War Two in Europe) is commemorated by Royals, politicians and veterans | 50% | 35% | 14% | 86% |
| Robert Prevost, from the United States, is chosen as the new Pope and has taken the name Leo XIV | 45% | 37% | 18% | 82% |
| The government announced plans to “significantly” cut immigration to the UK | 32% | 46% | 21% | 79% |
| Two men have been found guilty of the “mindless destruction” of the Sycamore Gap tree | 38% | 37% | 25% | 75% |
| The UK and the US agree a deal reducing import taxes on a set number of British cars, steel and aluminium | 23% | 47% | 30% | 70% |
| The US and China announce reductions in tariffs for 90 days while the two countries negotiate | 20% | 48% | 32% | 68% |
| Police arrest a man over suspected arson attacks on properties linked to Keir Starmer and a car | 18% | 47% | 35% | 65% |
| The UK and India agree a trade deal after three years of talks | 22% | 43% | 36% | 64% |
| The Bafta TV Awards, with Mr Loverman, Mr Bates vs the Post Office and Baby Reindeer all taking home prizes | 11% | 38% | 50% | 50% |
| Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United make it to the Europa League final | 21% | 24% | 56% | 44% |
The 80th anniversary of VE day commemorating the end of WW2 in Europe is the most heard news story this week, with 86% having heard of it. This is followed closely by the election of Robert Prevost as the first American pope (82%). Just under four-in-five (78%) heard of the current Labour government’s plans to “significantly” cut immigration to the UK.
Immigration
*Comparisons to any previous data from 5th of February
The view that immigration to the UK is currently too high continues. Just over two thirds (68%, +1) of UK adults now think that immigration is too high, with only 5% (+2) thinking it is too low. 15% (-3) think levels are currently about right. In the week where Keir Starmer announced the government were to ‘significantly’ cut levels of immigration, around three-in-five (60%) supporters of his party take the view immigration is currently too high.
Half (50%) now trust neither major party to handle the numbers of people coming to the UK
| “Which government do you think would be best at handling…” | Labour government | Conservative government | Neither | Labour lead | Change |
| The numbers of people migrating to the UK | 20% | 15% | 50% | Lab +5 | +5% |
| A fair process for immigration to the UK | 21% | 15% | 47% | Lab +6 | -1% |
| A fair process for asylum seekers to the UK | 21% | 13% | 49% | Lab +8 | n/c |
| The integration of different communities | 21% | 11% | 49% | Lab +9 | -3% |
When asked whether Labour or the Conservatives would do better handling issues relating the immigration, the public believe Labour will do better on all counts. However the public don’t have much confidence in Labour to do so, with around half believing neither party would be best at handling any of these issues.
The public have mixed views of the impact of immigration upon society. Just under half (45%) say immigration is generally a burden, with Reform and Conservative voters more likely to believe this (78% and 60% respectively). Conversely just over a quarter (27%) believe it is generally beneficial for society, particularly those who vote Green (55%), followed by Labour and Lib Dem voters (both 39%). A plurality of people in all age groups believe immigration is generally a burden, with the only exception being 18-34s who are split evenly with 34% believing it to be beneficial compared to 33% who think it a burden.
People similarly have mixed views as to the impact immigration has upon the economy. 39% think immigration is bad for the economy compared to a slightly smaller proportion who think it has a positive impact (30%). Just under half (46%) of people say they would still support reducing immigration to the UK if it means economic growth slows, compared to a third (34%) who would prioritise growing the economy if it meant immigration would not decline. 20% aren’t sure.
Brits think we are worse at assimilating new migrants than many other countries
Do you think the UK does a better or worse job than each of these other countries when it comes to integrating and assimilating new immigrants into the country’s culture?
| UK is better than… | UK is same as… | UK is worse than… | Don’t know | NET Better than Score | |
| The United States | 27% | 19% | 25% | 28% | +2% |
| China | 21% | 14% | 21% | 44% | 0% |
| France | 20% | 26% | 21% | 32% | -1% |
| Ireland | 11% | 32% | 20% | 37% | -8% |
| Germany | 13% | 27% | 26% | 35% | -13% |
| Australia | 13% | 18% | 37% | 32% | -24% |
| Canada | 8% | 22% | 34% | 36% | -26% |
When asked whether the UK does a better or worse job than comparable countries when it comes to integrating immigrants, people are generally critical of the UK’s performance. The UK is seen to do a particularly bad job compared to Canada (-26%) and Australia (-24%). The only country people think the UK does a better job integrating immigrants than is the US, although the lead is slim (+2%). People are most likely to think the UK performs the same as Ireland (33%) when it comes to integration.