Polling Results

US: Presidential polling – Biden extends lead over Trump to 17 points

Opinium and Guardian US latest national US poll reveals that, over the last month, undecided voters have swung towards Biden. The month saw the death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg, the presidential debate, White House COVID-19 diagnoses, and American deaths from the virus increase to 210,000.

As a result, voters who hadn’t decided in early September have turned to the Democrats, and Biden has gained 5 points among undecided voters since September. Democrats have also injected momentum into existing supporters, with voters for Biden now more likely to turn out than they were last month, up from 75% in September to 82% this month.

Subsequently, Biden’s lead over Trump, including don’t know voters, has increased to 17 points. That is, 57% of likely voters intend to vote for Biden and 40% intend to vote for Trump. This is just short of the lead in the popular vote that Ronald Reagan enjoyed in his second landslide victory.

Opinium surveyed 2,003 US adults aged 18+ from 8th to 12th October 2020. Interviews were conducted online and sampled and weighted to match the demographics of the US adult population as well as factoring in education level and past vote in recent elections.

National poll – full data tables here;

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