London Mayoral Election Poll

London Mayoral Election Poll

Despite the Conservatives’ national difficulties, London Mayor Boris Johnson appears to be on course for re-election this Thursday with our poll showing him beating Ken Livingstone by 43% to 37% in first preference votes and by a slightly narrower 52% to 48% when the second preferences of supporters of other candidates are allocated.

  • Lib Dem Brian Paddick is a distant third with 7% and only narrowly ahead of Green Party candidate Jenny Jones on 6%
  • UKIP’s Lawrence Webb and independent candidate Siobahn Benita have 3% each while the BNP’s Carlos Cortiglia is supported by a small 1% of the vote
  • While Boris Johnson has the support of 92% of those who would vote Conservative at a general election, Ken Livingstone only has the support of 79% of equivalent Labour voters
  • Lib Dem voters are split with 42% supporting Mr Paddick and the others evenly split between Boris (26%) and Ken (25%)
  • Ken Livingstone has a narrow lead among male voters (42% to 39%), this is more than outmatched by Boris Johnson’s 16 point lead among female voters (47% to 31%)
  • When asked who they trust on various issues, Boris Johnson leads Ken Livingstone by 20 points on attracting business and investment to London, by 13 points on ensuring the smooth running of the Olympics and 5 points on reducing crime
  • In contrast, Ken Livingstone’s strong point is public transport fares where he leads Boris Johnson by 13 points. He also leads the Mayor on unemployment by 6 points, housing by 3 points and dealing with transport unions by 2 points
  • Both major candidates are neck and neck for improving the reliability of public transport with 28% trusting the Mayor and 29% trusting his predecessor
  • No doubt due to his background in the Metropolitan Police, Brian Paddick’s strongest area was reducing crime where he was trusted by 14%.

Topline Voting Intention

1st Preference Vote%Predicted final vote once 2nd preferences are re-allocated
Boris Johnson (Conservative)4352
Ken Livingstone (Labour)3748
Brian Paddick (Liberal Democrats)7
Jenny Jones (Green)6
Lawrence Webb (UKIP)3
Siobahn Benita (Ind)3
Carlos Cortiglia (BNP)1

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Opinium Research carried out an online survey of 1,010 London adults aged 18+ from 24th to 30th April 2012. Results have been weighted to representative criteria.

Interview Method and Sample

This survey is conducted online by CAWI (computer aided web interviewing), using Opinium?s online research panel of circa 30,000 individuals. This research is run from a representative sample of GB adults (aged 18+ in England, Scotland and Wales). The sample is scientifically defined from pre-collected registration data containing gender, age (18-34, 35-54, and 55+), region (North East, North West, Yorkshire and Humberside, East Midlands, West Midlands, East of England, London, South East, South West, Wales, and Scotland), working status and social grade to match the latest published ONS figures.

Opinium also takes into account differential response rates from the different demographic groups, to ensure the sample is representative.