Late deciders swung towards the Greens and Lib Dems
For each major electoral event, Opinium conducts an ‘on-the-day’ poll sent out to any of our panelists with an instruction not to take part until they have voted.
This allows us to look at how people say they voted on the day of an election itself and compare it with their answers to pre-election polls and identify any late swings that might explain any differences between our predictions and the results.
Fuller analysis of this poll will be released in due course but the British Polling Council statement on the performance of the polls in the 2019 European Parliament elections makes reference to a question in our ‘on-the-day’ poll.†
The question asks when you decided that you were going to vote for the party you said you voted for and shows that people switching to more Remain-inclined parties made up their minds to do so later than those switching to more Leave-inclined parties.
The data table for this question can be found below.