European Parliament polling 6th May

6th May 2014

UKIP have a narrow lead over Labour with the Lib Dems a distant 4th

Liberal Democrats8+1
Plaid Cymru1+1
Scottish National Party3-2

Changes refer to our previous unpublished poll (data tables available shortly) conducted between the 29th April and the 1st May.

A note on methodology:

In our Westminster voting intention polls we include anybody who says they are likely or certain to vote and selects a party. This reduces the number of people counted to around 65% of the total sample which is in the range of turnout in recent general elections. Turnout for European Elections is generally much lower (34% of GB voters in 2009, 38% in 2004) and the electorate is composed differently so our results take into account voting behaviour in previous elections when deciding who to count the final results.

Opinium Research carried out an online survey of 1,972 GB adults aged 18+ from 6th to 8th May 2014. Results have been weighted to nationally representative criteria and filtered to those likely or certain to vote, taking into account past voting behaviour in European Parliament elections.

Interview Method and Sample

This survey is conducted online by CAWI (computer aided web interviewing), using Opinium?s online research panel of circa 30,000 individuals. This research is run from a representative sample of GB adults (aged 18+ in England, Scotland and Wales). The sample is defined from pre-collected registration data containing gender, age (18-34, 35-54, and 55+), region (North East, North West, Yorkshire and Humberside, East Midlands, West Midlands, East of England, London, South East, South West, Wales, and Scotland), working status and social grade to match the latest published ONS figures.

Opinium also takes into account differential response rates from the different demographic groups, to ensure the sample is representative.