Doubts grow about EU renegotiation

Doubts grow about EU renegotiation

Most voters appear to believe that the renegotiation of the UK’s membership of the European Union has little prospect of a worthwhile outcome, with six in ten (62%) describing the chance of achieving satisfactory new terms as unlikely. Less than a fifth (17%) thought Mr Cameron was likely to get good terms.

62% thought the chance of achieving satisfactory new terms as unlikely

This picture has only got worse for the prime minister since the summer – even in June just over half (55%) of voters thought a fruitful renegotiation unlikely.

This skepticism is now shared by the supporters of most parties, including Mr Cameron’s, with half (49%) of Conservative voters now believing the chance of getting satisfactory terms of membership unlikely. Unsurprisingly, UKIP voters are almost entirely unconvinced with nearly nine in ten (87%) believing Cameron’s goal to be unlikely.

Even renegotiation might not keep us in

When we last asked these questions in June, voters were at least prepared to say they would vote to stay in the EU if David Cameron called the new terms satisfactory and afterwards called a referendum backing the ‘in’ campaign (43% stay vs. 36% leave).

Perhaps the big worry for Cameron here is that even accounting for his long term strategy of a renegotiation with the intention of keeping Britain in the European fold, voters now narrowly say that they will vote to leave even if Mr Cameron renegotiates the terms and recommends staying in (43% leave vs. 40% stay).

Opinium Research carried out an online survey of 1,980 GB adults aged 18+ from 4th to 7th November 2014. Results have been weighted to nationally representative criteria. Full tables and results are available here.