Voting intention: 4th March 2026
See the full data tables here.
Reform UK continues to lead the latest Opinium voting intention poll, maintaining a clear lead despite small shifts among the other major parties. Labour records a modest increase in support this week, while both the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats slip slightly.
Beyond party support, the public mood is shaped by economic pessimism and growing concern about the escalating conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran. The public appears wary of deeper UK involvement overseas while remaining deeply pessimistic about the economic outlook at home.
Reform leads as Labour edges up
Reform UK leads the poll on 29% (-1), followed by Labour on 21% (+3). The Conservatives are on 16% (-2), with the Greens on 14% (+1) and the Liberal Democrats on 10% (-2).
Despite Labour’s modest improvement in vote share, Keir Starmer’s personal ratings remain very weak overall. His net approval stands at -42, though this represents a 7-point improvement compared with last week.
Leader ratings remain negative across the board, with none recording a positive net score. Kemi Badenoch’s net approval is -11, Ed Davey sits at -4, Nigel Farage at -17, and Green leader Zack Polanski at -10.
On the “best Prime Minister” question, Starmer holds a narrow one-point lead over Badenoch (21% to 20%), though 45% say neither. When compared with Nigel Farage, however, Farage leads Starmer by two points (28% to 26%), with 37% choosing neither.
There are also notable signs of dissatisfaction with Labour’s leadership: 52% believe Keir Starmer should resign as Labour leader, compared with 26% who believe he should remain.
Public wary of UK involvement in Iran conflict
As fighting between the United States, Israel and Iran enters its second week, the British public is far more likely to oppose than support the strikes.
45% oppose the US-Israeli military action, compared with 22% who support it. Only 18% support any form of UK military involvement, including 6% backing offensive airstrikes and 12% defensive strikes.
Instead, many favour a limited role. 22% say the UK should not get involved in any form, while others prefer diplomatic efforts (11%) or humanitarian support (12%).
However, attitudes shift if UK interests are directly targeted. 47% support offensive UK strikes if Iran attacks UK territory or overseas territories, and 42% support action if UK forces overseas are attacked.
Concern about escalation is widespread: 76% are worried the UK could be drawn further into the conflict.
Economic anxiety remains widespread
Economic pessimism remains a dominant feature of public opinion.
While 45% say they are currently “coping” financially and 32% feel comfortable, 21% say they are struggling. Looking ahead, 35% expect their personal finances to worsen over the next year, compared with 20% who expect improvement.
Expectations for the wider economy are even gloomier. Six in ten (60%) believe the UK economy will get worse over the next 12 months, while only 12% expect it to improve.
Most people also believe living costs have increased significantly over the past year. 88% say grocery costs have risen, 81% say the overall cost of living has gone up, and 76% believe energy bills have increased.
When asked which party would handle the economy better, neither commands strong confidence. Across most measures, large proportions of voters say “neither”, highlighting a lack of trust in both major parties on economic management.
Concerns about global impact and UK preparedness
The conflict in the Middle East is also raising fears about its economic consequences for the UK.
80% of the public are concerned about the impact on oil prices and global energy supplies, and 73% believe the conflict will affect the UK economy, including 30% who expect a significant impact.
There are also doubts about the UK’s readiness for a wider conflict. Almost half (49%) believe the UK was badly prepared militarily, while 56% think the government could have been better prepared for how events have unfolded.
Responsibility for the escalation is most often attributed to the United States: 32% say the US bears the most responsibility, compared with 18% who blame Iran and 13% Israel.
Britain’s international relationships under scrutiny
The government’s handling of international relationships also receives largely negative assessments.
A majority (55%) believe the government is doing a bad job handling relations with Donald Trump, compared with 26% who think it is doing a good job. Similarly, 51% say the government is doing badly at representing Britain’s interests on the international stage.
Views of international allies remain broadly consistent. Australia, France and Germany are widely viewed as allies, while Russia, Iran and China are overwhelmingly seen as threats.
Public attitudes towards the US are more mixed: 39% view the US as an ally, while 29% see it as a threat.
Commentary
James Crouch, Head of Policy and Public Affairs at Opinium, said:
“The public are clearly wary of the UK being pulled into another conflict in the Middle East. While Keir Starmer appears to be treading a careful line that broadly reflects public opinion, widespread doubts about the UK’s preparedness for a potential escalation may undermine any political advantage from his response.”
Overall, Reform UK retains a strong polling lead while dissatisfaction with the major parties continues to shape the political landscape. At the same time, economic pessimism and concern about the escalating Middle East conflict appear to be weighing heavily on public opinion.
Opinium conducted a nationally and politically representative survey of 2,050 UK adults between 4th and 6th March 2026.