Voting intention: 21st January 2026
See the full data tables here:
Labour’s standing in government remains fragile despite a small improvement in Keir Starmer’s personal ratings, as voters express deep uncertainty about the government’s direction and economic plans. Meanwhile, Reform maintains its national lead and public attention continues to be split between domestic performance and growing international tensions.
Reform leads as Starmer sees modest personal recovery after Greenland response
Reform remains ahead on 31%, with Labour up slightly to 22%. The Conservatives slip to 17%, while the Liberal Democrats are on 13% and the Greens on 11%.
Keir Starmer’s approval rating has improved but remains deeply negative, rising five points to –41. Other leaders remain in similar territory: Kemi Badenoch sits on –12, Nigel Farage on –14, Ed Davey on –3, and Zack Polanski on –6.
On the “Best Prime Minister” question, Starmer holds a narrow three-point lead over Badenoch (22% vs 20%), though 45% choose neither. Against Farage, Starmer trails by three points (27% vs 30%).
Health tops voter priorities, but immigration divides Labour and Reform
The NHS and healthcare remain the dominant public concern (58%, up four points), followed by immigration (49%) and the economy (44%).
When asked which party is best placed to handle issues, Labour’s performance against the Conservatives and Reform is broadly similar — except on immigration. Here, voters are far more likely to say Reform would handle the issue better than Labour, underlining a clear vulnerability for the government.
Brexit settles, but closer EU ties still popular
A majority of voters (53%) want to remain outside the EU. However, opinion within that group varies: 23% want a closer relationship, 17% want the current arrangement maintained, and 13% prefer a more distant one. Meanwhile, 34% favour rejoining the EU.
Government direction and economic clarity under heavy criticism
Public dissatisfaction with Labour’s direction in government is widespread. 62% say the country is moving in the wrong direction under Starmer, compared with 23% who say the government is on the right track.
Voters also feel Labour lacks a clear economic plan. Two-thirds (66%) say the government’s plans for the economy are unclear, while only 20% believe they are clear.
On delivery against broad ambitions, the government faces consistently negative ratings. Majorities believe Labour is doing a bad job on:
- Rewarding hard work (64%)
- Helping people who are struggling (63%)
- Delivering long-term economic growth (62%)
- Supporting people who play by the rules (59%)
- Encouraging ambition (58%)
- Reducing inequality (56%)
Even among Labour’s 2024 voters, opinion is split on direction and economic clarity, with substantial minorities expressing dissatisfaction.
International tensions: a fine line on the US
Public opinion towards the United States is finely balanced, with almost as many seeing the US as a threat as an ally.
The public strongly supports the UK stating that Greenland’s future should be decided by its people and Denmark (77% support). A plurality believe the government is handling this correctly, though many feel the UK has been too soft in dealing with the US.
If the dispute escalated into tariffs, voters favour negotiation while holding firm on principle over retaliation or concessions.
ID cards and social media ban gain support
On domestic policy questions, there is broad backing for tougher measures in some areas. A proposed ban on social media for under-16s commands strong support (63% vs 15% oppose), particularly among older voters.
Support for ID cards is driven mainly by concerns about illegal immigration, benefit fraud, and identity theft. However, voters also express worries about data breaches and government surveillance.
A government struggling to define its direction
James Crouch, head of policy and public affairs research at Opinium, said:
“While world-shaping events are unfolding on the international stage, Keir Starmer’s Labour government appears to be drifting at home. With the public seeing no clear direction and no convincing economic plan, the unsurprising result is persistently low approval ratings for the government.”
Opinium conducted a nationally and politically representative survey of 2,050 UK adults between 21 and 23 January 2026.