Voting Intention: 19th November 2025
See the latest data tables here.
Reform UK continues to hold a firm lead in voting intention, while both Labour and the Conservatives struggle to regain momentum ahead of next week’s Budget, according to the latest Opinium polling for the Observer.
Reform lead continues while Labour and Conservatives are under 20%
Reform remains in first place on 32% (-1), well ahead of Labour on 19% (-1) and the Conservatives on 17% (no change). The Liberal Democrats rise slightly to 13% (+1), and the Greens to 12% (+1).
Keir Starmer’s approval ratings remain deeply negative
Public dissatisfaction with political leadership remains entrenched: Keir Starmer stays at -45, while Kemi Badenoch sits at -16 (+1). Nigel Farage’s ratings remain steadier, at -10. Rachel Reeves’ approval has ticked up but remains very low at -42.
This is the third poll in a row where Keir Starmer has been on -45, and marks over a 100 day period where the prime minister has been polling in the net minus forties.
Despite his poor ratings, Starmer maintains a narrow lead over Badenoch in the “Best PM” question (+4), though almost half of voters (47%) say they would prefer neither. Farage continues to edge Starmer when the two are put head-to-head on this measure (+4).
Public braced for an “unfair” budget
Expectations ahead of the Budget are bleak. A majority (52%) believe the Budget will be unfair, while only 15% think it will be fair. Most (71%) expect taxes to rise. On specific tax decisions, the public is divided:
- Freezing income tax bands: 38% right, 36% wrong
- Raising council tax: 40% right, 36% wrong
When asked whether current taxes are set at the right level, voters say council tax, fuel duty and VAT are far too high, while taxes on high earners, banks, oil and gas companies, and corporations are seen as too low.
Keir Starmer (-42) and Rachel Reeves (-44) are still heavily distrusted on economic matters, with neither making gains as the Budget approaches.
Majority believe UK takes more than its “fair share” of refugees
Three in five respondents (60%) say the UK takes more than its fair share of refugees. Only 16% believe most asylum applicants are genuine, while nearly half (49%) think only a minority are.
The public’s top priorities for asylum policy are:
- Reducing unauthorised arrivals (48%)
- Removing failed applicants (44%)
- Reducing misuse of the system (37%)
Ratings of the asylum system are most negative on deterring irregular arrivals, removing refused applicants, and processing claims efficiently. However, there is more confidence in how the system treats asylum seekers and supports genuine refugees.
Strong support for new government asylum proposals
Most of the Home Secretary’s proposed asylum reforms are broadly popular. The most strongly supported include:
- Requiring asylum seekers with savings to contribute to accommodation costs (69% support)
- Visa restrictions for countries not cooperating on returns (65%)
- A new “Protection Work and Study” visa for refugees (54%)
Support tends to be highest among Conservative and Reform voters, though the work/study visa receives least support from Reform voters.
Methodology
Opinium conducted a nationally and politically representative survey of 2,050 UK adults aged 18 and over between 19-21 November 2025.