Voting intention: 18th March 2026
See the full data tables here.
Reform UK continues to lead voting intention, despite a slight dip in support this week. Labour remains in second place, with the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats both making modest gains, suggesting a gradual tightening among the traditional parties behind Reform’s lead.
At the same time, there are early signs of improvement in perceptions of the Prime Minister. While Keir Starmer remains deeply unpopular overall, his ratings have ticked upwards, coinciding with heightened international attention on the Middle East crisis.
Reform leads as Starmer ratings improve slightly
Reform UK leads the vote share on 27% (-3), maintaining a clear advantage despite slipping three points. Labour remains on 21% (no change), followed by the Conservatives on 17% (+2). The Greens hold steady on 15%, while the Liberal Democrats rise to 12% (+2).
All major party leaders continue to have net negative approval ratings. However, Keir Starmer’s rating improves to -38 (+4), his best score in over six months. Kemi Badenoch remains the least unpopular of the main leaders on -9 (+2), while Nigel Farage sits on -16 (+1).
On the question of who would make the best Prime Minister, Starmer narrowly leads Badenoch (23% vs 20%), though 45% say they prefer neither. Starmer and Farage are tied on 27% when compared head-to-head, with over a third again opting for neither.
Beyond the party leaders, Rachel Reeves’ ratings have improved notably (up 7 points to -38), while David Lammy sees the sharpest decline (-25, down 6).
Cost of living pressures remain heavily entrenched
The cost of living continues to dominate public concern, with overwhelming majorities reporting rising costs across essential categories.
Nearly 9 in 10 (87%) say the overall cost of living has increased over the past year, while 79% report rising energy bills and 90% rising grocery costs. Council tax has also increased for most (83%).
Looking ahead, expectations remain pessimistic. Around 8 in 10 expect the cost of living (81%), energy bills (81%), groceries (84%) and council tax (80%) to rise further over the next 12 months.
Against this backdrop, views of government support are mixed. Four in ten (39%) say recent emergency support for energy bills does not go far enough, compared to 29% who think it is about right.
Public wary of deeper involvement in Iran conflict
The ongoing conflict involving Iran is shaping public attitudes to foreign policy, with widespread concern about escalation.
Three in four (77%) are worried that the UK could be drawn further into the conflict. A clear majority (57%) oppose the UK joining US-led naval escort missions in the Strait of Hormuz, while just 28% support participation.
Iran is overwhelmingly viewed as a threat (67%), while Israel is also more likely to be seen as a threat than an ally (41% vs 19%). Notably, perceptions of the United States are finely balanced, with 34% seeing it as an ally and 33% as a threat—an increasingly negative shift compared to recent weeks.
Across a range of measures, more people think the government is doing a bad job than a good job handling international relations, particularly in dealing with Donald Trump (-19 net).
All major political leaders receive net negative ratings for their handling of the Iran situation, with Nigel Farage scoring lowest (-17), followed by Kemi Badenoch (-13) and Keir Starmer (-10).
Divided views on AI, but support for NHS data sharing
Public attitudes towards the use of data and artificial intelligence in public services are mixed.
There is clear support for expanding NHS data sharing to improve care and reduce waiting times, with 48% in favour and 19% opposed.
However, opinion is more divided when it comes to the use of AI by police and government bodies to analyse data for crime prevention. Around a third support this (32%), while a similar proportion oppose it (33%).
Majority back tougher immigration measures
The government’s recent immigration reforms receive majority support from the public.
Just over half (53%) support the proposed changes, which include extending the time required before migrants can apply for permanent settlement and tightening work and language requirements. Fewer than one in five (18%) oppose the measures, with around one in five neutral.
Commentary
James Crouch, head of policy and public affairs at Opinium, said: “Keir Starmer is back above -40 for the first time in over 200 days, suggesting his response to the Middle East crisis has landed with at least some voters.”
Reform UK retains its lead, but the broader political landscape shows signs of movement beneath the surface. Labour remains static, while the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats edge upwards.
At the same time, international events appear to be shaping domestic perceptions, with modest improvements for the Prime Minister alongside widespread concern about global instability. However, persistent cost of living pressures and continued dissatisfaction with political leadership suggest a volatile and unsettled electorate.
Opinium conducted a nationally and politically representative survey of 2,050 UK adults between 18th and 20th March 2026.