Voting intention: 17th June 2026
See the full data tables here. The majority of fieldwork for this week took place before the results of the Makerfield by-election was known.
Andy Burnham’s victory in the Makerfield by-election has intensified scrutiny of Labour’s leadership, with a majority of voters in the run up to the result saying Keir Starmer should resign and many expecting a leadership contest within the next year. At the same time, Reform continues to lead national voting intention, while public concern about defence, immigration and online harms remains high.
The findings suggest a political environment in which Labour continues to face questions about its future direction, even as voters remain sceptical about the alternatives on offer.
Reform remains ahead as Starmer’s ratings stay weak
Reform UK continues to lead voting intention on 27%, despite falling two points since earlier this month. Labour remains on 20%, while the Conservatives have edged up to 18%. The Greens stand on 14% and the Liberal Democrats on 12%.
Keir Starmer’s approval rating remains unchanged at net -42, while Chancellor Rachel Reeves remains on -40. Kemi Badenoch continues to outperform other major party leaders, standing on net -4. Nigel Farage has slipped slightly to -21, while Zack Polanski has improved to -16.
On the Best Prime Minister question, Badenoch narrowly leads Starmer by one point (23% to 22%), while Farage also maintains a narrow lead over the Prime Minister (27% to 26%). In both cases, around four in ten respondents choose neither option.
Despite some modest improvements in perceptions of Starmer’s personal attributes since April, he remains heavily negative across every measure tested. His weakest ratings continue to be on being a strong leader, being in touch with ordinary people, and representing what most people think.
Majority want Starmer to resign as Labour leader
Pressure on Labour’s leadership continues to grow.
More than half of respondents (55%) believe Keir Starmer should resign as Labour leader, compared with just 25% who think he should remain in post. One in five are unsure.
Looking ahead, 43% believe Labour should hold a leadership election within the next 12 months if Andy Burnham’s by-election victory triggers a contest, while a further 21% would favour an immediate leadership election. Only 16% believe there should not be a leadership contest.
Opinion is more divided on whether Starmer should stand in any future contest. While 44% believe he should not run, 35% think he should seek re-election as leader.
Burnham remains Labour’s strongest alternative
Among potential Labour successors, Andy Burnham remains the only figure viewed more positively than negatively by the public.
Burnham records a net acceptability score of +8, ahead of John Healey (-8), Al Carns (-10) and Wes Streeting (-16). However, his standing has fallen by 12 points since May, representing the largest decline among the candidates tested.
When voters are asked directly who they would prefer as Prime Minister, Burnham leads Starmer by seven points (26% to 19%). He also comfortably outperforms Wes Streeting in a head-to-head comparison.
The findings suggest that while Burnham remains Labour’s strongest potential successor in the eyes of the public, much of the electorate remains unconvinced by any of the party’s current leadership options.
Defence concerns remain high
Public concern about Britain’s security and defence capabilities remains elevated.
A majority (55%) believe the government spends too little on defence, second only to the NHS as an area where voters feel additional spending is needed. More than half (51%) also believe the UK is badly prepared to respond militarily to a major international conflict, while only 17% think the country is well prepared.
When asked how increased defence spending should be funded, the most common answer is reducing spending on welfare and benefits (27%), followed by cuts elsewhere in government (21%). Relatively few favour higher taxes or increased borrowing.
There is also widespread concern about foreign attempts to influence political debate in the UK, with 62% saying they are concerned about external actors influencing public opinion.
Public backs tougher action on social media for young people
The public remains more concerned about protecting young people from online harms than preserving unrestricted access to social media.
Nearly two thirds (64%) prioritise protecting young people from online harms, compared with just 19% who prioritise protecting their freedom to use social media.
Support is similarly strong for the government’s proposed ban on social media platforms for under-16s. Around three in five (62%) support the measure, while only 19% oppose it.
However, the public is less convinced that the proposals will work. Nearly half (48%) believe the measures will not be effective in addressing the problems associated with young people’s use of social media, compared with 38% who believe they will be effective.
Opinion is also divided on whether 16 and 17-year-olds should be able to use social media without age-related restrictions, with 41% supporting unrestricted access and 44% opposing it.
Immigration remains a major concern
Immigration continues to rank among the most significant issues facing the country.
Nearly two thirds (65%) believe immigration levels are too high, although this figure has fallen slightly since April. Only 4% believe immigration is too low, while 21% think current levels are about right.
When voters compare Labour and the Conservatives on immigration, Labour holds small leads across most measures, including the number of people migrating to the UK, asylum policy and integration. However, on every question roughly half of respondents choose neither party.
Commentary
Opinium’s James Crouch said: “Andy Burnham’s victory in Makerfield has transformed the political narrative and given him the chance to ride a wave of Keir Starmer’s unpopularity. However, our polling suggests before the Makerfield result was announced that Labour voters still wanted Starmer to contest any leadership race and had little appetite for an immediate leadership election.”
Opinium conducted a nationally and politically representative survey of 2,050 UK adults between 17th and 19th June 2026.