Voting Intention: 10th December 2025
See the full data tables here.
Reform maintains a clear national lead while party switching dynamics, leader approvals, and perceptions of the Greens, the US, and Europe all reveal a shifting political landscape, according to the latest Opinium polling for the Observer.
Reform Leads as Voters Consider Tactical Options
Reform continues to top voting intention on 31%, ahead of Labour on 20% and the Conservatives on 18%. The Liberal Democrats remain on 13% and the Greens on 12%.
Tactical voting preferences highlight notable movement on the centre-left. If Labour were highly unlikely to win in a constituency, 1 in 5 Labour voters (19%) say they would switch to the Liberal Democrats, while 17% would move to the Greens. Smaller numbers would shift to the Conservatives or Reform (both 11%).
Among other parties’ supporters:
- 17% of Lib Dem voters would consider Labour in seats where the Lib Dems cannot win.
- 21% of Lib Dem voters would consider the Greens in that scenario.
- 19% of Green voters would consider the Lib Dems if Greens were uncompetitive.
Reform voters demonstrate the least willingness to switch: only 11% would consider the Conservatives, 7% the Greens, and just 6% Labour or the Lib Dems.
Leader ratings: Badenoch improves as Starmer and Reeves stay deeply negative
Approval ratings remain bleak for the main party leaders but show notable divergence. Starmer’s modest improvement still leaves him well below the levels recorded by recent Conservative leaders. Badenoch, by contrast, continues a steady upward trend.
- Keir Starmer: Net –43 (+2)
- Kemi Badenoch: Net –10 (+4), her best score of the year
- Ed Davey: Net –4
- Nigel Farage: Net –12
- Rachel Reeves: Net –45 (–3)
Green Party Seen as Clearer, More Purposeful — But Not Ready for Government
The public scores the Green Party more positively than Labour, and often the Conservatives, on several party brand attributes. The Greens perform best on:
- Knowing what it stands for (+20)
- Having a clear sense of purpose (+13)
- Being united (+12)
However, the Greens score poorly on perceived readiness for office:
- “Ready for government”: –31, similar to Conservative levels (–26)
They also underperform on:
- Representing public opinion (–19)
- Being trusted with major decisions (–17)
Reaction to Keir Starmer’s comments describing the Greens as “nuts” and “dangerous” is mixed: 39% say the comments were fair, 33% unfair.
Fairness scores are much higher among Labour and Conservative voters, but sharply negative among Lib Dem (-12) and Green voters (–45).
Shifting views of the US and global threats
The countries most widely viewed as allies remain Australia (69%), France (58%), and Germany (57%).
Notably, public perceptions of the United States have improved, even if these are low for one of the UK’s key allies:
- 48% now see the US as an ally, up from 35% in April.
- Those viewing the US as a threat have fallen from 34% to 24%.
Hostile perceptions remain highest for Russia (78% threat), Iran (67%), and China (64%).
Despite mixed views of the US as an ally, 69% say the UK still has “a lot in common” with the US, comparable to France (69%) and Australia (78%).
Donald Trump: seen as effective, but not trusted
Public attitudes towards Donald Trump are sharply divided:
Positive perceptions include:
- Can get things done: +21
- Sticks to his principles: +13
- Strong leader: +11
- Has the USA’s best interests at heart: +5
Negative perceptions are stronger on personal character:
- Trustworthy: –37
- Represents what most Americans think: –11
- Friend of Britain: –9
The public generally believes Trump’s presidency would harm US relations with NATO, the EU, and Ukraine — though views on US–UK relations are evenly split.
Brexit and Europe: Appetite for closer ties
More than half of adults (56%) want the UK to either rejoin the EU (31%) or move to a closer relationship (25%). Only 14% want a more distant relationship.
Significantly, a decade after the referendum, re-engagement with Europe is seen as increasingly acceptable:
- Rejoining the Customs Union: +24 net acceptable
- Rejoining the Single Market: +20
- Rejoining the EU: +11
A shift suggesting the long-term politics of Brexit remain unsettled.