Opinium Voting Intention: 9th July 2025
Downloadable data tables from our latest voting intention poll can be found here.
Keir Starmer’s approval rating has fallen by 6 points to -41%, our new lowest ever approval rating for him. For context, there are only 3 times in recent years a party leader has had worse approvals:
- Liz Truss after the fallout of the mini budget (-72%, 19/10/2022)
- Boris Johnson when he resigned as Tory party leader (-44%, 06/07/2022)
- Boris Johnson immediately after Partygate (-42%, 12/01/2022)
Now only two in five 2024 Labour voters have a positive view of how Starmer is doing his job (41% approve, 37% disapprove).
Rachel Reeves approval rating amongst the public has fallen slightly by 2 points to -39%.
Kemi Badenoch has had a comparatively good week – although still strongly disapproved of overall her approval score has risen by 6 points to -19%. Ed Davey drops back into net negative territory (-1%, down 1 point) while Nigel Farage’s approvals have also dropped slightly (-12%, -2).
*Tracked changes for leaders since 25th of June with exception for Reeves whose tracked changes are since 11th of June:
| 11th July | Approve | Neither | Disapprove | Don’t know | NET: Approve | NET: Approve changes |
| The way Keir Starmer is handling his job as Prime Minister | 18% | 17% | 60% | 5% | -41% | -6% |
| The way Kemi Badenoch is handling her job as leader of the Conservative Party | 18% | 32% | 37% | 13% | -19% | +6% |
| The way Ed Davey is handling his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats | 21% | 39% | 22% | 18% | -1% | -1% |
| The way Nigel Farage is handling his job as leader of Reform UK | 30% | 21% | 41% | 8% | -12% | -2% |
| Rachel Reeves is handling her job as Chancellor of the Exchequer | 14% | 23% | 53% | 9% | -39% | -2% |
Opinions on who would be best PM remain mostly unchanged with. 23% (-1%) say Keir Starmer compared to 14% (+2) who chose Kemi Badenoch. Half (49%, N/C) now say they think none of these would be best Prime Minister.
Sections this week
- What made the news
- Economy trackers
- Best gov on defence
- Reeves crying in the Commons
- Wealth tax
- Palestine Action
What made the news this week?
| Heard a lot | Heard a little | Not really heard anything | NET: Heard | |
| 2025 Wimbledon Tennis Championships takes place | 44% | 35% | 20% | 80% |
| The Labour government reverses most of the cuts it was going to make to benefits | 35% | 40% | 26% | 74% |
| Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves seen crying in the House of Commons | 41% | 33% | 26% | 74% |
| President Emmanuel Macron of France has a state visit to the UK | 33% | 37% | 31% | 69% |
| The public inquiry into the Post Office scandal finds Post Office bosses “knew or should have known” that Horizon was faulty | 28% | 41% | 31% | 69% |
| Norman Tebbit, former Conservative minister under Margaret Thatcher, dies | 20% | 39% | 40% | 60% |
| MP Zarah Sultana announces she is resigning from the Labour party, saying she will be founding a new party with Jeremy Corbyn | 17% | 39% | 44% | 56% |
| Public inquiry into the Southport murders and Axel Rudakubana begins | 15% | 41% | 45% | 55% |
| Keir Starmer announces 10 Year Health Plan aiming to make the NHS “fit for the future” | 12% | 41% | 46% | 54% |
| Israeli prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, nominates US president Donald Trump for a Nobel peace prize | 14% | 31% | 55% | 45% |
| Former Labour leader Neil Kinnock suggests that Labour should introduce a ‘wealth tax’ | 9% | 28% | 63% | 37% |
| An 83-year-old priest is arrested in Palestine Action protest | 9% | 20% | 72% | 28% |
Wimbledon is the most heard of event this week (80%). This is followed by just under three-quarters (74%) of people having heard of Labour reversing many cuts it was going to make to benefits and Rachel Reeves crying in the Commons.
Most of the news would have been before the new migrant deal with France was announced.
Economy trackers
| Labour | Conservative | Neither | NET: Lab lead | Change since previously asked on 11th June | |
| Spending government money efficiently | 20% | 18% | 45% | +3% | -1% |
| Running the economy | 20% | 20% | 42% | 0% | -2% |
| Improving your financial situation | 16% | 17% | 49% | -2% | -1% |
| Bringing down the national debt and deficit | 17% | 18% | 45% | -1% | -2% |
| Improving public services | 26% | 14% | 43% | +12% | -4% |
| Setting tax levels | 19% | 21% | 42% | -2% | -3% |
- Labour’s NET lead over the Conservatives has fallen on all economic issues we ask about.
- The Tories now hold a narrow lead over Labour on improving one’s financial situation, brining down national debt and setting tax levels.
- Whereas Labour hold leads on improving public services and spending government money efficiency
- Asked about their financial situation, just under half (46%) say they are currently struggling, with a third (35%) saying they are comfortable and 18% struggling.
- People generally expect their personal finances to worsen over the next 12 months as well (34% expect it to get worse, 19% get better and 43% stay the same).
- People are more pessimistic looking ahead about the wider economy (55% expect it to get worse, 12% get better and 27% stay the same)
Gov best on defence and foreign affairs
| Labour | Conservative | Neither | NET: Lab lead | Change since previously asked on 28th May | |
| Working with allies against threats to the UK | 25% | 20% | 31% | +6% | -1% |
| Increasing trade for UK businesses | 23% | 21% | 34% | +2% | -1% |
| Allocating funding to the armed forces / defence | 23% | 20% | 33% | +3% | 0% |
| UK’s reputation abroad | 24% | 18% | 38% | +5% | -1% |
| The UK’s relationship with the European Union (EU) | 29% | 16% | 34% | +13% | -1% |
| Global humanitarian and human rights efforts | 25% | 13% | 38% | +12% | -1% |
Labour maintains a strong lead over the Conservatives on issues relating to defence, with there being essentially no change since last asked at the end of May.
After a visit from Macron, Labour has a 13 point lead on handling the UK’s relationship with the European Union (Lab 29%vs Con 16%).
Reeves Crying in Commons
| Agree | Disagree | Neither agree nor disagree | Don’t know | NET: Agree | |
| …represents what most people think | 12% | 53% | 19% | 16% | -41% |
| …has similar views to my own | 13% | 53% | 19% | 16% | -40% |
| …is in touch with ordinary people | 13% | 53% | 19% | 15% | -39% |
| …is a strong leader | 16% | 48% | 20% | 16% | -32% |
| …can be trusted to take big decisions | 17% | 47% | 21% | 14% | -30% |
| …is trustworthy | 17% | 46% | 22% | 15% | -29% |
| …is likeable | 17% | 45% | 24% | 14% | -28% |
| …is able to get things done | 17% | 45% | 22% | 15% | -27% |
| …is able to stand up for Britain’s interests abroad | 16% | 41% | 24% | 19% | -25% |
| …is competent | 20% | 44% | 21% | 14% | -24% |
| …has the nation’s best interests at heart | 20% | 42% | 22% | 16% | -22% |
| …is decisive | 22% | 39% | 22% | 16% | -18% |
| …is brave | 23% | 37% | 23% | 17% | -14% |
| …sticks to her principles rather than just saying what people want to hear | 26% | 36% | 22% | 16% | -10% |
- When we ask about Rachel Reeves’ key attributes, she performs very poorly across all measures. She performs worst on representing what people thinking, having similar views to oneself and being in touch with ordinary people.
- Public awareness of Rachel Reeves crying in the House of Commons last week is high (69% seen or heard about it, 25% have not)
- When asked how they felt when they saw or heard she had cried in the Commons, people did not feel harshly toward her. The main emotions felt were:
- Indifferent (32%)
- Sympathetic (26%)
- Surprised (19%)
We asked various questions relating to how the public thinks of politicians who cry in public:
| Agree | Disagree | NET Agree | |
| It’s natural that sometimes politicians will cry in public too | 45% | 18% | +27% |
| I expect politicians to show emotion sometimes | 58% | 10% | +48% |
| Politicians will only do it deliberately to show they care | 22% | 30% | -8% |
| Male politicians are criticised more than female politicians if they cry | 34% | 16% | +18% |
| Female politicians are expected to be more likely to cry than male politicians | 35% | 20% | +15% |
| Politicians should ensure they remain professional in public and not let their emotions get the better of them | 42% | 22% | +19% |
- People are broadly accepting of politicians showing emotion and crying in public; however many see it as unprofessional. There are still gendered expectations around politicians crying, with more people seeing it as a female trait and that male politicians will come under more scrutiny for it.
- A third (32%) of people say their perception of Reeves has changed since seeing her cry in public. Almost one in five (18%) have a more positive view of her, compared to 14% who see her more negatively.
- Two third (68%) of people’s opinion of her has not changed. 6% say it was positive before and still is, 32% say it was negative before and still is and 30% aren’t sure.
Wealth tax
- Asked what they think the purpose of a wealth tax would be a quarter (25%) think it would be to reduce inequality compared to 36% who think it would be raise additional revenue fairly. Uncertainty is high, with 20% not taking either view or 20% not sure
We asked people what they think should be included in a wealth tax:
| Should be included | Should not be included | NET: Should be included | |
| Second residence | 69% | 14% | 55% |
| Buy-to-let properties | 63% | 16% | 47% |
| Business ownership | 53% | 22% | 30% |
| Investments (such as shares, bonds, mutual funds) | 49% | 27% | 23% |
| Valuable personal property (such as art, jewellery) | 39% | 37% | 2% |
| Cars and other vehicles | 39% | 38% | 1% |
| Cash savings | 37% | 41% | -4% |
| Main residence | 36% | 44% | -8% |
| Pensions | 22% | 57% | -35% |
- Strongest support for being included in a wealth tax are:
- Second residences (NET +55%)
- Buy-to-let properties (NET +47%)
- Business ownership (NET +30%)
- Conversely the following are what people oppose being included most:
- Pensions (NET -35%)
- Main residence (NET -8%)
- Cash savings (NET -4%)
- Views on what the threshold for a wealth tax should be are spread out. Just under 1 in 10 (8%) believe there should be a tax on all wealth. The most common threshold people believe there should be for a tax on wealth is above £1 million (21%), followed by over £500k (12%).
- Half (54%) of people support a wealth tax compared to 14% who oppose it (NET +40% support). 17% neither support nor oppose and 16% don’t know.
- Among voter groups from the last GE, three-fifths (NET +61%) of Lab voters support, with this figure dropping but still positive among Conservative and Reform voters (NET +29% and +24%)
Palestine Action
- Three-fifths (60%) of people believe Palestine Action’s recent breaking into of RAF Brize Norton was NOT a legitimate form of protest, compared to 19% who thought it was.
- Views are bit more mixed on the government’s decision to designate Palestine Action as a terrorist group. 39% support the ban compared to 25% who oppose. 16% neither support nor oppose and 20% don’t know
- Labour voters are much more divided on the decision (37% support vs 32% oppose), while Conservative (62% support vs 17% oppose) and Reform voters (59% support vs 17% oppose) are much more supportive of the ban