Opinium Voting Intention: 9th April 2025
Downloadable data tables from our latest voting intention poll can be found here.
Approval ratings for party leaders
This week Keir Starmer’s approval shows another small dip from -29% to -30%, going down by a point. For other leaders, their approvals have suffered a dip: most notable is Kemi Badenoch, whose approval rating is down 5 percent compared to last week.
*Changes from 26-28 March 2025
| Approve | Neither | Disapprove | Don’t know | NET: Approve | NET: Approve changes | |
| Keir Starmer | 25% | 15% | 55% | 5% | -30% | +2 |
| Kemi Badenoch | 19% | 29% | 39% | 13% | -21% | -1 |
| Ed Davey | 22% | 37% | 24% | 17% | -2% | n/c |
| Nigel Farage | 28% | 20% | 43% | 9% | -14% | +2 |
The best prime minister question remains quite stable compared to last week. Starmer is ahead of Badenoch by 28% (+2) to 13 % (n/c), but 43% (-2) say “none of these”. This includes 25% (n/c) of 2024 Labour voters, 41% (-5) of 2024 Tory voters and 69% (n/c) of 2024 Reform voters.
The state of the Western alliance
Public split on whether the US is an ally or a threat: 34% now think the USA is a threat to the UK (up from 16% in November when Trump was elected and up from only 7% in April 2024). Only 35% now think the USA is an ally to the UK (down from 56% in November and 69% in April 2024).
| To what extent, if at all, do you think the following countries are allies, or threats, to the UK? | 9-11 April 2025 | 13-15 Nov 2024 | 17-19 April 2024 | |||
| Country | Ally | Threat | Ally | Threat | Ally | Threat |
| Australia | 73% | 3% | 67% | 3% | 70% | 3% |
| France | 59% | 8% | 55% | 8% | 58% | 7% |
| The United States | 35% | 34% | 56% | 16% | 69% | 7% |
| Israel | 17% | 40% | 23% | 36% | 27% | 31% |
| Turkey | 15% | 23% | 15% | 22% | 19% | 20% |
| China | 6% | 60% | 5% | 64% | 6% | 65% |
| Iran | 3% | 66% | 4% | 66% | 5% | 68% |
| Russia | 2% | 81% | 4% | 77% | 4% | 78% |
The US might be unpredictable, but we still have a lot in common: 69% still think the UK has a lot in common with the USA, only slightly down from 72% in November. The UK continues to have the most in common with Australia (83% think we have a lot in common).
| 9-11 April 2025 | 13-15 Nov 2024 | 17-19 April 2024 | ||||
| Country | A lot in common | Not much in common | A lot in common | Not much in common | A lot in common | Not much in common |
| Australia | 83% | 10% | 77% | 11% | ||
| France | 74% | 17% | 66% | 22% | ||
| The United States | 69% | 23% | 72% | 16% | ||
| Turkey | 25% | 59% | 26% | 55% | 25% | 60% |
| Israel | 23% | 62% | 26% | 58% | 28% | 58% |
| China | 19% | 70% | 14% | 71% | 16% | 70% |
| Russia | 12% | 78% | 14% | 72% | 13% | 75% |
| Iran | 7% | 79% | 9% | 75% | 7% | 80% |
Donald Trump is not seen as a friend of Britain, but he is increasingly seen as not representing America either: Half (52%) think that Donald Trump is not a friend of Britain, up from 40% in January hen he was elected. However, 48% now also think he doesn’t represent what most Americans think either (up from 33% in January, when 38% thought Doanld Trump actually did represented what most Americans think).
| 9-11 April 2025 | – | 22-24 Jan 2025 | |||||
| To what extent do you agree or disagree that Donald Trump … | Agree | Disagree | NET Agree: | – | Agree | Disagree | NET Agree: |
| …sticks to his principles rather than just saying what people want to hear | 50% | 28% | +21% | 48% | 28% | +20% | |
| …is able to get things done | 48% | 28% | +20% | 49% | 23% | +26% | |
| …is a strong leader | 43% | 36% | +7% | 49% | 29% | +20% | |
| …has the USA’s best interests at heart | 36% | 42% | -6% | 42% | 33% | +9% | |
| …represents what most Americans think | 26% | 48% | -21% | 38% | 33% | +5% | |
| …is a friend of Britain’s | 22% | 52% | -30% | 26% | 40% | -15% | |
| …is trustworthy | 16% | 64% | -48% | 20% | 56% | -37% | |
Since Donald Trump has been elected the public are even more convinced that this has been bad for US relations with Ukraine and China, but also with allies too:
- 66% think Donald Trump has been bad for US relations with China (up from 44% in January), and 59% think it has been bad for US relations with Ukraine (up from 38% in January).
- This also extend to allies: 59% think Trump has been bad for relations with the EU (up from 45% in Jan), 52% bad for relations with NATO (up from 43% in January) and with the UK (up from 33% on January).
| 9-11 April 2025 | – | 22-24 Jan 2025 | |||||
| Donald Trump became the 47th President of the United States on the 20th of January. Do you think this has been good or bad for the United States’ relations with each of the following? | Good for relations with | Bad for relations with | NET: Good | – | Good for relations with | Bad for relations with | NET: Good |
| Russia | 27% | 34% | -7% | 23% | 35% | -12% | |
| Israel | 26% | 32% | -6% | 26% | 27% | -1% | |
| United Kingdom | 23% | 43% | -20% | 27% | 33% | -6% | |
| NATO | 13% | 52% | -39% | 17% | 43% | -26% | |
| European Union | 13% | 59% | -46% | 17% | 45% | -28% | |
| Ukraine | 10% | 59% | -48% | 21% | 38% | -17% | |
| China | 8% | 66% | -58% | 16% | 44% | -28% | |
Who should we be closest to?
Almost three in five (61%) now think the UK Government should focus on improving its ties with allies other than the United States, up from 45% in January. Similarly, barely a fifth (18%) think the UK Government should focus on improving its ties with a United States led by Donald Trump , down from 30% in January.
When choosing between the US, the EU and the Commonwealth, two in five (40%) think the UK should be closest to the European Union, while 29% think the UK should be closest to the Commonwealth (such as Canada, Australia, and New Zealand). Only one in ten (12%) think the UK should be closest to the United States.
Tarde and tariffs
People think that tariffs have made everyone worse off: 64% think people in the UK are worse off, 61% think people in the EU are worse off, and 59% think people in China are worse off thanks to Trump’s tariffs. While there are 16% of Brits who believe that the tariffs will benefit people in the US, over half (57%) sill think people in the US will be worse off thanks to the tariffs.
| Over the past week, Donald Trump has significantly increased US tariffs on imports from both allies and rivals. How do you think the following will be impacted financially? | Better off | No change | Worse off | NET: better off |
| People in the United States | 16% | 15% | 57% | -41 |
| People in the UK | 8% | 16% | 64% | -56 |
| People in the European Union | 8% | 17% | 61% | -53 |
| People in China | 7% | 18% | 59% | -51 |
Public don’t think differential tariffs with the EU are a Brexit benefit: two in five (41%) think the 20% tariffs on the EU and 10% tariffs on the UK are bad for both markets. Only 11% think they are good for the UK and bad for the European Union.
Trade war bad for both US and China: Over half (59%) think the trade war with China is bad for both countries. In fact, Brits are more likely to believe this has played to China’s benefit: 10% think it is good for China and bad for the USA, only 5% think it is good for the USA and bad for China.
People are unsure about Starmer’s response to the trade war: a quarter (25%) approve of how Keir Starmer has handled the UK’s response to the United States increasing tariffs on imports from Britain. However, a similar proportion disapprove (25%), and 27% neither approve nor disapprove.