Opinium Voting Intention: 6th August 2025
Downloadable data tables from our latest voting intention poll can be found here.
What’s in the news
The most widely heard news story this week was the launch of the UK–France treaty allowing some small boats to be returned to France, which 74% of people were aware of. This was followed closely by the UK’s recognition of Palestine (71%) and the news of a man dying at an Oasis concert (69%).
Leader trackers
Keir Starmer’s approval ratings remain close to their lowest levels, with a net score of -41, down five points in the last two weeks. Other leaders’ ratings have been more stable: Kemi Badenoch is on -19% (+3), Ed Davey is on -1 (+1) and Nigel Farage is on -9 (-2).
Starmer scores lowest on “represents what most people think” (net -47%), “has similar views to my own” (net -45%) and “is a strong leader” (net -40%), with declines across all leadership attributes.
Badenoch’s strongest attribute remains “sticks to her principles” (net -2%), while her weakest areas are “looks like a prime minister” (net -29%) and “in touch with ordinary people” (net -27%).
Immigration tracker
The proportion of people who think immigration is too high has risen slightly to 71% (+3). Seventeen percent think it is about right, and 3% think it is too low.
Palestine and the war in Gaza
Forty-two percent now see Israel as a threat, compared with 18% who see it as an ally — slightly more than view Palestine as a threat. Views of the US have softened, with 51% now seeing it as an ally and 23% as a threat.
Keir Starmer’s handling of the conflict receives a net negative response: 45% disapprove (+12 since October 2024), while 17% approve (-2). A third (33%) think he has given enough support to Israel, but 40% think he has not done enough for citizens in Gaza — rising to 50% among 2019 Labour voters.
Forty-five percent think the UK should recognise Palestine as an independent state, with 23% opposed.
AI in schools
Most people support restrictions on technology use by young people. Fifty-eight percent think social media should be banned for under-16s, with 83% favouring a ban for under-13s. Seventy percent want mobile phone use banned during the school day for under-16s, and 82% would ban it for under-13s.
On AI, 41% think pupils leave secondary school well-prepared to understand and use emerging technologies, while 36% disagree. Two-thirds (66%) want schools to teach how to use AI and similar technologies. Half think pupils should be able to use AI for research, but 73% oppose using it to write homework or essays.
Views on AI for teachers are mixed: 41% support its use for lesson planning, 38% for admin, and only 25% for marking work.
Online Safety Act
Over half (54%) support the aims of the Online Safety Act, while 17% oppose it. Most people want age verification to apply to online gambling (81%), pornography (82%), hateful or racist content (80%), alcohol-related sites (72%) and social media with mature content (69%).
A quarter of people (23%) currently use a VPN. Between 10% and 20% say they would use one to bypass age checks for various types of content.