Polling Results

Downloadable data tables from our latest voting intention poll can be found here.

• Starmer’s approval rating remains at a low of -40, while Farage has a net -7 approval rating
• Over half of the electorate support new family visa restrictions as 72% think immigration levels are too high

In a week where his Deputy, Angela Rayner, faced widespread criticism and ultimately resigned over her tax affairs, the Prime Minister continues to struggle in the polls. Opinium’s latest polling reveals Sir Kier Starmer’s approval rating as -40, the lowest of all party leaders tested.

Leader of the opposition Kemi Badenoch’s approval rating also lingers down at -19. However, leader of Reform UK, Nigel Farage, has a much higher approval, at -7, only a few points behind Ed Davey who has a net approval rating of -2.

As Reform UK kicked off their Party Conference this week, it will be welcome news that 40% agree with what Nigel Farage is saying, with one in three (31%) believing he will deliver on his promises. This is a stark contrast to voter attitudes towards Keir Starmer; less than a third (30%) of the public believe what he says, and a fifth (19%) believe he will follow through on his promises.

Looking forward to Reform

Party polls depict a similar picture to the leader’s approval ratings, with Reform UK currently leading at 30% of the vote, compared to Labour’s 23%. The party, which currently only has four MPs, has 37% of the vote among the over 65 age group, and a third (33%) of 50-64s.

Reform’s approach to immigration and crime continues to be popular, but their net approval is lowest for their diversity and quality policies, and their energy and net zero policies.

Immigration statistics

To appeal to the 72% of the electorate who say that immigration is too high, the prior Home Secretary announced a temporary suspension on all applications to bring family members to the UK, until tighter rules have been put in place. A majority (56%) of voters say they agree with her decision, with only 14% opposing the announcement.

In a similar vein, support for the previous government’s plan to fly immigrants to Rwanda has grown. Around half (49%) of the electorate now support the plan, compared to only 39% in April 2024.   Meanwhile, a similar proportion want the UK to remain signed up to the European Convention on Human Rights (36%) to those who think the UK should leave the convention (37%), with giving the UK more control over rights and rules seen as the top benefit for leaving or reforming the ECHR (27%).

James Crouch, head of policy and public affairs at Opinium, said: “It feels like an understatement to say this has been an incredibly difficult week for the government. The challenge the Prime Minister has is that few people like what he’s saying and even fewer believe he’ll deliver on it. That’s what leaves the door wide open for Nigel Farage, who is relishing the platform afforded to him at his party’s conference.”

Opinium conducted a nationally and politically representative poll of 2,0500 UK adults aged 18+ between 3rd and 5th September 2025.