Opinium Voting Intention: 25th June 2025
Downloadable data tables from our latest voting intention poll can be found here.
Keir Starmer’s approval rating remains stable at -35 (-1 from a fortnight ago back). After gaining an 8-point increase last time, Kemi Badenoch’s approval drops back down by 5 points to -24.Ed Davey remains the only leader of the main parties to have a non-negative approval rating at 0 (N/C). Approval of Nigel Farage also remains relatively stable at -9 (+1).
| Approve | Neither | Disapprove | Don’t know | NET: Approve | NET: Approve changes | |
| The way Keir Starmer is handling his job as Prime Minister | 21% | 16% | 56% | 7% | -35 | -1 |
| The way Kemi Badenoch is handling her job as leader of the Conservative Party | 16% | 30% | 40% | 14% | -24 | -5 |
| The way Ed Davey is handling his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats | 22% | 38% | 21% | 19% | 0 | N/C |
| The way Nigel Farage is handling his job as leader of Reform UK | 30% | 21% | 40% | 9% | -9 | +1 |
Once again, opinions on who would be best PM remain mostly unchanged with, 24% (-1%) say Keir Starmer compared to 12% (N/C) who chose Kemi Badenoch. Nearly half (49%, N/C) now say they think none of these would be best Prime Minister.
Sections this week
- What made the news
- Pary attributes
- 100 Days of Labour
- Defence spending (Iran and Israel)
- The welfare bill
What made the news this week?
Conflict in the Middle East dominated the most heard-about news stories this week, with the conflict between Israel and Iran (89%), Donald Trump’s claim to have negotiated the ceasefire between Israel and Iran (86%) and the conflict in Gaza (86%) making up the top 3.
Domestically, four fifths (81%) had also heard about the assisted dying bill passing in the house of commons.
| News stories tested | Heard a lot | Heard a little | Not really heard anything | NET: Heard |
| The conflict between Israel and Iran | 58% | 31% | 11% | 89% |
| The conflict in Gaza | 47% | 39% | 14% | 86% |
| Donald Trump claiming to have negotiated a ceasefire between Israel and Iran | 45% | 40% | 14% | 86% |
| Assisted dying bill passes the House of Commons in final vote | 36% | 45% | 19% | 81% |
| Palestine Action campaign group reached a military base and damaged two planes | 29% | 37% | 34% | 66% |
| Britain commits to spend 5 per cent of national income on security by 2035 | 21% | 40% | 39% | 61% |
| New Queen Elizabeth II memorial announced | 14% | 37% | 49% | 51% |
Leadership attributes
*Tracked changes to the 23th of April 2025
Labour’s brand metrics continue to decline across all attributes. What stands out this week is how few think the party is united (-33, -17 from April 23rd) in the background of the drama over next week’s vote on the welfare bill.
| Labour Party attributes | 23-Apr-25 | 25-Jun-25 | Change since last wave |
| …is in touch with ordinary people | -23 | -31 | -8 |
| …represents what most people think | -27 | -35 | -8 |
| …has similar views to my own | -27 | -32 | -5 |
| …has the nation’s best interests at heart | -18 | -21 | -3 |
| …has a clear sense of purpose | -17 | -27 | -11 |
| …knows what it stands for | -16 | -25 | -9 |
| …can be trusted to take big decisions | -25 | -31 | -6 |
| …is competent | -25 | -28 | -3 |
| …is united | -16 | -33 | -17 |
| …is tolerant | -12 | -12 | -1 |
Similarly, the Conservatives too have declined on every perceived attribute that we test since last April. The most notable decreases have been amongst those who feel the party is competent (-8), in touch with ordinary people (-7), and ready for government (-6).
| Conservative Party attributes | 23-Apr-25 | 25-Jun-25 | Change since last wave |
| …is in touch with ordinary people | -35 | -42 | -7 |
| …represents what most people think | -31 | -36 | -5 |
| …has similar views to my own | -26 | -30 | -4 |
| …has the nation’s best interests at heart | -21 | -24 | -3 |
| …has a clear sense of purpose | -20 | -24 | -3 |
| …knows what it stands for | -12 | -16 | -5 |
| …can be trusted to take big decisions | -26 | -29 | -4 |
| …is competent | -22 | -30 | -8 |
| …is united | -25 | -26 | -1 |
| …is tolerant | -18 | -23 | -5 |
| …is ready for government | -32 | -39 | -6 |
Public Spending
*Tracked changes to the 23th of April
Public attitudes towards taxing and spending remain stable compared to late April. Around a quarter think the government should increase taxes and spend more on public services (25%) and a similar portion think they should reduce taxes and spend less on public services (22%).
A third (33%), however, think the government should keep taxes and spending on public services about where they are now.
| Thinking about the amount of money the government raises in taxes and then spends on public services, do you think they should…? | 23-Apr-25 | 25-Jun-25 | Change since last wave |
| Increase taxes and spend more on public services | 23% | 25% | -2% |
| Reduce taxes and spend less on public services | 24% | 22% | 2% |
| Keep taxes and spending on public services about where they are now | 32% | 33% | +1% |
| Don’t know | 21% | 20% | -1% |
Best at handling…
This time around, in addition to asking best government at handling each issue only between a Labour government and a Conservative government (Labour still leads the Tory’s on every issue but loses out to neither) we also asked with a longer list of parties.
When given the choice of most parities, whilst the public still think a Labour government would be best at handling six key issues, they think Reform would lead on seven of them:
- Reform stands out as the best at handling immigration (+18% lead on Labour), crime (+7% lead) and terrorism (+7% lead).
- Labour, on the other hand, do not lead convincingly on any issue, with their +5% lead over Reform on Education being their biggest
| Lab | Cob | Reform | Lib Dem | Green | None | Lead | |
| Healthcare / NHS | 22% | 11% | 18% | 8% | 6% | 16% | Labour (+4) |
| The economy | 17% | 16% | 18% | 6% | 5% | 15% | Reform (+1) |
| Environmental issues | 14% | 10% | 16% | 6% | 23% | 13% | Green (+8) |
| Immigration | 14% | 11% | 32% | 5% | 5% | 15% | Reform (+18) |
| Education | 20% | 14% | 15% | 9% | 5% | 13% | Labour (+5) |
| Crime | 16% | 13% | 23% | 6% | 5% | 15% | Reform (+6) |
| Inequality | 17% | 10% | 18% | 9% | 7% | 16% | Reform (+1) |
| Public services / benefits | 19% | 12% | 18% | 9% | 6% | 14% | Labour (+1) |
| Housing / house prices | 18% | 11% | 16% | 7% | 6% | 18% | Labour (+2) |
| Constitutional issues / Devolution | 15% | 12% | 17% | 7% | 5% | 14% | Reform (+2) |
| Defence | 18% | 16% | 19% | 5% | 5% | 13% | Reform (+1) |
| Terrorism | 15% | 14% | 22% | 5% | 4% | 15% | Reform (+7) |
| Energy / power | 18% | 12% | 17% | 6% | 12% | 14% | Labour (+1) |
| Foreign affairs (excluding the EU) | 17% | 14% | 20% | 7% | 5% | 13% | Labour (+3) |
One Year of Labour
- Most (54%) think Starmer’s government have been doing a bad job since they were elected, compared to around only a fifth (18%) thinking they’ve done a good job. Labour 2024 voters are also split, 37% think they have been doing a good job, and 34% a bad job.
- Similarly, most (54%) think they’ve done a worse job than they expected them to do (including 61% of 2024 Labour voters), compared to just a fifth (18%) who think they have exceeded their expectations.
- The public are fairly split on how the current Labour government is doing compared to the previous Conservative government. Just over a quarter (26%) think the current Labour government is doing a better job, but slightly more (29%) feel the last Conservative government did a better job.
- Two fifths also feel that, since coming into government, the current government have prioritised the wrong issues (42%), compared to only a tenth (11%) who think they have prioritised the right issues.
- The public don’t think that Labour have handled much well, but the most popular answers relate to their foreign policy: their response to Donald Trump and the USA (15%), and relations with the European Union (14%). The winter fuel allowance changes (40%) and disability benefit changes (29%) are top in the list of areas the public think have been handled poorly in the last year.
Defence
- Almost half (46%) currently support NATO’s commitment to raising defence spending to 5% of GDP by 2035, compared to just around one in six (16%) who oppose it.
- On response to the recent outbreak of conflict in Iran and Israel, more disapprove of Starmer’s response (34%) than approve (23%) with a net score of -11. They disapproved more strongly of all other leaders tested, Donald Trump (-21), Benjamin Netanyahu’s (-33), and Ayatollah Ali Khameni’s (-39).
| Approve | Neither | Disapprove | Don’t know | NET Approval | |
| Keir Starmer, Prime Minister of the UK | 23% | 27% | 34% | 17% | -11 |
| Donald Trump, US President | 25% | 17% | 46% | 12% | -21 |
| Benjamin Netanyahu, Prime Minister of Israel | 14% | 17% | 47% | 23% | -33 |
| Ayatollah Ali Khameni, Supreme leader of Iran | 8% | 18% | 47% | 26% | -39 |
- Over three quarters (78%) are concerned about the impact on global security of the recent escalation in conflict between Iran and Israel, with a third saying they are “very concerned” (32%). Only around a tenth (12%) are not concerned.
- Over three fifths (62%) feel pessimistic that the current ceasefire between Iran and Israel will hold, compared to a fifth (20%) who are optimistic.
Welfare Bill
Note: fieldwork started before the U-turn.
- From what the public have heard so far, two fifths (37%) oppose the changes to disability benefits proposed in the welfare bill, compared to a fifth (21%) who support it. Among 2024 Labour voters, 43% oppose while 23% support.
- If these reported changes to disability benefits went ahead, over two fifths (45%) think disabled people would be worse off in the long run, whilst just a tenth (8%) think they would be better off.