Opinium Voting Intention: 24th September 2025
Opinium conducted a nationally and politically representative survey of 2,050 UK adults aged 18+ between 24th-26th September 2025. See the full data tables here.
- Burnham leads Starmer by 51 points on net approval (Burnam: 27% approve, 17% disapprove vs Starmer: 20% approve, 61% disapprove)
- However, Burnham trails Farage on who would make the best Prime Minister (24% vs. 31% respectively)
- As Labour kicks off its Party Conference, Opinium’s poll reveals two-thirds (68%) think Government has not been a success
As Labour Party delegates head to Party Conference this weekend, the latest polling from Opinium shows Andy Burnham’s personal approval rating is far outstripping those of Prime Minister Keir Starmer and his beleaguered Labour Party.
Burnham leads Starmer by 51 points on net approval. The Mayor of Greater Manchester has a net positive approval rating of +10, while Starmer languishes on -40, a 51-point gap between the two Labour figures.
However, over half the UK population does not have a strong view of Burnham, with 29% neither approving nor disapproving of the Mayor, and 27% stating they do not know.
The polling also suggests that Andy Burnham is not a silver bullet for Labour to combat Reform. On the question of who would make the best Prime Minister, Burnham (24%) still trails Reform leader Nigel Farage (31%). He also fares worse than Starmer in this matchup, who polls at 27% against Farage’s 29%.
Starmer’s Struggles
Burnham may be boosted by the mounting public dissatisfaction with Starmer and Labour as the party convenes in Liverpool this weekend. Half (52%) the public have a more negative view of Keir Starmer since he became Prime Minister, compared to only 15% who have a more positive view. Even 56% of 2024 Labour voters have a more negative view of Starmer since he became PM.
Labour’s leadership remains a weakness for the party; over a quarter (29%) of those not voting Labour say Starmer’s leadership is the main reason, ahead of immigration policy (27%) and tax and economic policy (23%). Among those planning to vote Labour, nearly half (45%) cited their policies on health and the NHS, followed by the cost of living (30%), and the Party’s leadership (24%), as reasons for doing so. (Fieldwork dates 17-19 of September 2025)
Labour Weaknesses
The Labour Party’s reputation overall has worsened in office: half (51%) say they now view the party more negatively, with two-thirds (68%) saying the Government has not been a success. Over two fifths (43%) think Starmer’s government is worse than Rishi Sunak’s, compared to just 26% who say it is better.
Labour’s biggest failings appear to be around questions of trust and optimism. Only 16% of UK adults say Labour is doing a good job at rebuilding trust in politics, while two thirds (66%) say they are doing a bad job. Similarly, on providing hope and optimism for the future, 64% say the Government is doing a bad job, with only 16% taking a positive view.
Even on the party’s best issue – being open and honest about the challenges facing the country – a majority still think their performance has been poor (55%).
Public Priorities
Against the backdrop of Labour’s electoral worries about Reform, it is notable that immigration comes top (52%) among the most important issues for the UK public for the first time since Opinium started tracking this question in 2020. Health and the NHS follow close behind (51%), with the economy in third place on 47%.
James Crouch, head of policy and public affairs at Opinium, said:
“The public and Labour voters alike are increasingly unimpressed by the job Keir Starmer and Labour have done since entering office. Unfortunately, there’s no easy way out for Labour Party on the eve of their conference. While Andy Burnham has been touted as potential successor, our polling suggests he is far from a silver bullet when it comes to taking on Nigel Farage.”