Opinium Voting Intention: 23rd July 2025
Downloadable data tables from our latest voting intention poll can be found here.
Leader approvals
*Tracked changes for leaders since 9th of July.
| 25th July | Approve | Neither | Disapprove | Don’t know | NET: Approve | NET: Approve changes |
| The way Keir Starmer is handling his job as Prime Minister | 22% | 15% | 57% | 6% | -35% | +6% |
| The way Kemi Badenoch is handling her job as leader of the Conservative Party | 16% | 31% | 39% | 14% | -23% | -4% |
| The way Ed Davey is handling his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats | 21% | 38% | 23% | 18% | -2% | -1% |
| The way Nigel Farage is handling his job as leader of Reform UK | 33% | 18% | 40% | 9% | -7% | +5% |
| Rachel Reeves is handling her job as Chancellor of the Exchequer | 15% | 21% | 54% | 10% | -39% | 0% |
Keir Starmer’s net approval rating as Prime Minister has risen by 6 points to -35%, returning to the average level we’ve recorded during his time as PM, after last wave’s result marked his lowest to date. Rachel Reeve’s approval has not changed and remains on -39%.
Nigel Farage’s net approval score has improved by 5 points, now -7%. Kemi Badenoch’s approval rating has dropped however, declining by 4 points to -23%.
25% (+2%) say Keir Starmer would be best Prime Minister compared to 12% (-2%) who chose Kemi Badenoch. Many are dissatisfied with a choice between the two however, as half (49%, N/C) say they think none of these would be best Prime Minister.
Sections this week
- What made the news
- Govt’ priorities
- Water and sewage
- ECHR
- ISA changes
- Lowering voting age
- Withdrawing the whip
What made the news this week?
| Heard a lot | Heard a little | Not really heard anything | NET: Heard | |
| Junior doctors in England have announced plans for strike action over pay and working conditions. | 32% | 46% | 23% | 77% |
| Gregg Wallace and John Torode are removed as hosts of BBC’s MasterChef | 39% | 36% | 25% | 75% |
| A significant data leak has exposed the personal details of Afghan nationals who worked with British forces | 29% | 37% | 34% | 66% |
| Epping in Essex becomes the centre of divisive protests over the use of a hotel for asylum seekers | 26% | 36% | 38% | 62% |
| The England women’s football team will stop taking the knee before matches, after defender Jess Carter revealed she was racially abused online | 22% | 36% | 42% | 58% |
| The government has announced it will replace Ofwat, the water regulator | 17% | 39% | 44% | 56% |
| James Cleverly returns to the shadow frontbench as the Conservatives reshuffle their shadow cabinet | 10% | 34% | 56% | 44% |
| Nigel Farage has pledged to create ‘Nightingale prisons’ built on disused military sites to tackle overcrowding. | 10% | 28% | 63% | 37% |
| Chancellor Rachel Reeves announces changes to foster great investment in her second Mansion House speech | 8% | 25% | 67% | 33% |
| Suella Braverman releases a video about the European Convention on Human rights (ECHR) | 5% | 16% | 80% | 20% |
The junior doctors strike in England is the most heard of story this week (77%), followed by Gregg Wallace and John Torode being removed from MasterChef (75%) as well as the data leak on Afghan nationals who worked with British forces (66%).
Most important issues
| Issue | % chosen in top 3 | Change since last asked |
| Health / NHS | 55% | -1% |
| Immigration | 49% | +7% |
| Economy | 45% | +1% |
| Crime | 24% | +1% |
| Housing / house prices | 18% | -1% |
| Energy / power | 15% | -1% |
| Public services / benefits | 15% | -1% |
| Environmental issues | 12% | +1% |
| Defence | 11% | +1% |
| Inequality | 9% | -1% |
| Education | 8% | 0% |
| Terrorism | 7% | -1% |
| European Union and Brexit | 6% | -2% |
| Foreign affairs (excluding the EU) | 3% | -1% |
| Other | 3% | 0% |
| Constitutional issues / Devolution | 1% | 0% |
Since we last asked what people’s top 3 issues were at the end of May, there has been little change in people’s priorities with the exception of immigration which risen 7 points and overtook the economy to be 2nd most important issue.
| A Labour government led by Keir Starmer | A Conservative government led by Kemi Badenoch | Neither | Don’t know | NET: Labour lead | Change in NET Labour lead | |
| Healthcare / NHS | 29% | 14% | 40% | 17% | +15% | -2% |
| The economy | 22% | 21% | 41% | 16% | +1% | -1% |
| Environmental issues | 25% | 13% | 43% | 19% | +12% | 0% |
| Immigration | 19% | 18% | 48% | 15% | +2% | -5% |
| Education | 26% | 17% | 37% | 19% | +9% | -3% |
| Crime | 21% | 19% | 42% | 18% | +2% | -4% |
| Inequality | 25% | 13% | 43% | 19% | +11% | -2% |
| Public services / benefits | 26% | 17% | 41% | 16% | +9% | -2% |
| Housing / house prices | 24% | 14% | 43% | 19% | +10% | -1% |
| Constitutional issues / Devolution | 21% | 16% | 41% | 22% | +6% | -1% |
| Defence | 23% | 21% | 37% | 19% | +1% | -2% |
| Terrorism | 19% | 20% | 40% | 21% | -1% | -5% |
| Energy / power | 26% | 16% | 40% | 18% | +9% | -1% |
| Foreign affairs (excluding the EU) | 24% | 20% | 38% | 19% | +4% | -4% |
When asked which party would be best dealing with various issues, Labour still retains a strong lead over the Conservatives on all issues with the exception of terrorism.
When we look at the change in the net lead we can see since last asked at the end of May Labour’s lead over the Conservatives has declined on almost all issues however, particularly immigration and terrorism (both -5).
Government priorities
We tested 5 priorities outlined by the Labour Growth Group, and 5 outlined by Angela Rayner.
The top priorities the public think the UK government needs to fix over the next four years are “People are worried about jobs, rising prices, and not having enough money to get by” [Rayner] (53%), “Local services like schools, housing, and the NHS are under pressure from rising immigration” [Rayner] (46%), and “A government that’s too slow or unwilling to make big changes that actually help people” [LGG] (32%).
However, many people do not think the Labour party has the ideas to fix these problems as shown below:
| A lot / some good ideas to fix | Hardly any / no good ideas to fix | Not sure | NET: Good ideas to fix | |
| A government that’s too slow or unwilling to make big changes that actually help people | 19% | 58% | 20% | -39% |
| Some parts of the country get all the jobs and investment, while others are left behind | 20% | 52% | 23% | -32% |
| It’s too hard to build the homes, roads, or public services people need | 23% | 51% | 22% | -27% |
| Businesses struggle to grow due to too many rules and too little support | 20% | 53% | 22% | -33% |
| We don’t have enough affordable, reliable energy to power homes and businesses | 25% | 52% | 20% | -28% |
| People are worried about jobs, rising prices, and not having enough money to get by | 20% | 61% | 18% | -41% |
| Local services like schools, housing, and the NHS are under pressure from rising immigration | 21% | 56% | 18% | -35% |
| New technology is changing jobs and daily life faster than people can keep up | 18% | 50% | 25% | -32% |
| People are spending more time alone online instead of connecting in real life | 17% | 51% | 23% | -34% |
| Some people are being drawn into extreme or dangerous views because of what they see online | 18% | 54% | 24% | -35% |
Water and sewage
Water companies are less trusted to act in the public interest (-36% net trust) than energy companies (-29%) and much less trusted than rail companies (-8%).
Support for water companies being nationalised is high (55% support, 13% oppose, +42% net support).
56% think a publicly owned (renationalised) water industry would manage water better than privately owned water companies, whom 10% think would do a better job managing. Similarly, 51% think a nationalised water company would be most likely to reduce the direct cost of using water for consumers whereas only 9% think bills would reduce more under a private company.
In terms of where the money for public ownership should come from, 30% want cuts from other services to pay for this, while 11% think it should be paid for by additional taxes, and 13% think the money should be borrowed.
Three-quarters (64%) support the Environment Secretary’s sewage pledge (to half sewage discharges by 2030), with only 7% opposing. People however are equally split on how realistic they think the pledge is, with both 41% thinking it is and is not achievable.
ECHR
Support for the ECHR has remained similar: 48% now support staying signed up to it, while 30% think we should leave it. (Last poll was 3-5 April 2024: 48% wanted to stay signed up, 26% wanted to leave).
30% think it is likely overall levels of immigration would drop if we left the ECHR, and 28% think small boat arrivals would drop. However many believe there would be no difference or are not sure.
While leaving it isn’t universally supported, two-thirds (62%) think the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) needs reform. Only 11% think it doesn’t need reform.
34% think human rights are protected in the UK regardless of whether it is signed up to the ECHR, whereas 31% think the UK’s international reputation would worsen if we left the ECHR.
51% think the ECHR is often or sometimes used by individuals with criminal convictions to avoid deportation or legal consequences. 18% believe it is rarely or never used in this way.
ISA reforms
Half (49%) of people oppose a policy that would reduce the amount of money people can put into cash ISAs tax free with the intent of encouraging people to put more into stocks and shares ISA’s. Only 15% support this policy. People are split as to which ISA option they think would be most beneficial for them:
“In the long run, do you think someone would be better off putting money into a cash ISA or a stocks and shares ISA?”:
| Cash ISA | 28% |
| Stocks and shares ISA | 23% |
| Both of the above would produce the same results | 18% |
| None of the above | 6% |
| Don’t know | 25% |
Interestingly, while just under three in ten (28%) think putting money in a cash ISA would be better for an individual vs a stocks and shares ISA, twice as many people think that putting money into a stocks and shares ISA is better for economic growth than putting it in a cash ISA (24% vs 12% respectively).
“And which do you think would be better for economic growth?”:
| If more people put money into stocks and shares ISAs rather than cash ISAs | 24% |
| Putting money into cash ISAs or stocks of shares ISAs would produce the same result for economic growth | 17% |
| If more people put money into cash ISAs rather than stocks and shares ISAs | 12% |
| None of the above | 11% |
| Don’t know | 36% |
Lowering the voting age
Half (52%) oppose lowering the voting age, while a quarter (25%) support it (-27% net support).
Withdrawing the whip
25% think it is rarely or never the right decision to remove the whip from an MP for rebelling. While 31% think it is sometimes the right answer, only 11% think it is often or always the right solution.