Opinium Voting Intention: 23rd April 2025
Downloadable data tables from our latest voting intention poll can be found here.
Approval ratings for party leaders
This week Keir Starmer’s approval shows another small dip from -30% to -33%, going down by 3 points. By comparison, Kemi Badenoch has seen an improvement of 2 points from -21% to -19%.
*Changes from 9-11 April 2025
| 23-25 April | Approve | Neither | Disapprove | Don’t know | NET: Approve | NET: Approve changes |
| Keir Starmer | 22% | 17% | 56% | 5% | -33% | -3 |
| Kemi Badenoch | 20% | 30% | 38% | 13% | -19% | +2 |
| Ed Davey | 20% | 39% | 25% | 16% | -5% | -4 |
| Nigel Farage | 29% | 22% | 41% | 8% | -12% | +3 |
Keir Starmer is doing slightly worse on the best prime minister question than he did a fortnight ago. Starmer is ahead of Badenoch by 25% (-3) to 14% (+1), but 45% (+2) say “none of these”.
Sections this week
- What made the news
- Trackers: Party attributes
- Trackers: Party leads in housing and public services
- Local elections
- Conservative-Reform agreement
What made the news this week?
The death of Pope Francis is the major news story this week for the public (65% heard a lot about this), with the Supreme Court’s ruling on the legal definition of a woman the most high profile domestic news (50% heard a lot about it).
The ‘major incident’ in Birmingham continues to be a major news story, with 40% having heard a lot about this story this week.
| News stories tested | Heard a lot | Heard a little | Not really heard anything | NET: Heard |
| Pope Francis dies at the age of 88 on Easter Monday | 65% | 27% | 8% | 92% |
| The Supreme Court rules that the legal definition of a woman should be based on biological sex | 50% | 35% | 15% | 85% |
| Birmingham City Council declaring a ‘major incident’ in response to a month-long bin strike | 40% | 38% | 22% | 78% |
| Jeff Bezos’s fiancée and a number of female celebrities, including Katy Perry, take part in an 11 minute “space flight” | 31% | 46% | 23% | 77% |
| The government nationalising British Steel to prevent the Scunthorpe steelworks shutting down | 29% | 43% | 28% | 72% |
| The IMF slashes its growth forecasts for a number of major economies, including the UK | 12% | 33% | 55% | 45% |
| The Conservative Party saying that police forces in England and Wales should no longer record “non-crime hate incidents” (NCHI’s) which are recorded to collect data on hate incidents that could escalate into more serious harm but do not amount to a criminal offence | 7% | 23% | 71% | 29% |
Trackers
Party attributes
Both Labour and the Conservative have sustained heavy reputational damage, with substantial negative ratings across all attributes tracked.
Labour not only remains significantly less popular than during the general election campaign (down a magnitude of between 20 to 37 points depending on the attribute) the party is also down in earlier on this year: Labour now has a net score of -27 on having “similar views to my own” (-27, down 4 points).
| Do you agree or disagree that the Labour party… | Net agreement now | Net agreement on 19th Feb 2025 | Change since 19th Feb 2025 | Net agreement on 12th Jun 2024 campaign | Change since 12th Jun 2024 campaign |
| …is in touch with ordinary people | -23% | -21% | -2 | +14% | -37 |
| …represents what most people think | -27% | -25% | -2 | +5% | -32 |
| …has similar views to my own | -27% | -23% | -4 | -2% | -25 |
| …has the nation’s best interests at heart | -18% | -16% | -1 | +10% | -28 |
| …has a clear sense of purpose | -17% | -15% | -2 | +4% | -20 |
| …knows what it stands for | -16% | -12% | -4 | +6% | -22 |
| …can be trusted to take big decisions | -25% | -24% | -1 | -4% | -22 |
| …is competent | -25% | -22% | -3 | -1% | -24 |
| …is united | -16% | -13% | -3 | +4% | -20 |
| …is tolerant | -12% | -8% | -3 | +9% | -21 |
| … ready for government | n/a | n/a | n/a | +1% | n/a |
The Conservatives have made some improvements since the general election and have edge up since February, but despite this the Conservative continues to have a worse reputation than Labour.
Kemi Badenoch has gone some way to improve the unity of the Conservative Party. The Conservatives now have a net score of -25 on being “united”. This is up 5 points on February, and up 23 points from their very poor rating on this during the general election campaign. Despite all these improvements, Labour continues to be seen as more united than the Conservatives (Lab net -16 vs Con net -25).
| Do you agree or disagree that the Conservative party… | Net agreement now | Net agreement on 19th Feb 2025 | Change since 19th Feb 2025 | Net agreement on 12th Jun 2024 campaign | Change since 12th Jun 2024 campaign |
| …is in touch with ordinary people | -35% | -36% | +1 | -50% | +15 |
| …represents what most people think | -31% | -34% | +3 | -47% | +16 |
| …has similar views to my own | -26% | -26% | 0 | -36% | +10 |
| …has the nation’s best interests at heart | -21% | -22% | +1 | -31% | +10 |
| …has a clear sense of purpose | -20% | -21% | 0 | -29% | +8 |
| …knows what it stands for | -12% | -13% | +1 | -22% | +11 |
| …can be trusted to take big decisions | -26% | -25% | -1 | -35% | +10 |
| …is competent | -22% | -26% | +4 | -36% | +15 |
| …is united | -25% | -30% | +5 | -48% | +23 |
| …is tolerant | -18% | -18% | 0 | -29% | +11 |
| … ready for government | -32% | -33% | 0 | n/a | n/a |
Other trackers
Housing
There has been little change on how the two largest parties are perceived on the issue of housing, with Labour continuing to have leads on all areas of policy we track on housing.
Labour continues to have the largest lead on Housing for low income households (Lab +14) and Reducing the cost of renting (Lab +13). Labour’s smallest lead is on Reducing the cost of mortgages (Lab +3), but significantly it continues to have a lead over the Conservatives despite the latter traditionally being the party of homeowners.
| Best party to handle… | Lab gov’t | Con gov’t | Neither | Lab lead | Lab lead 19th Feb 2025 | Change since 19th Feb 2025 |
| Reducing the cost of mortgages | 21% | 18% | 43% | Lab +3 | +2 | +1 |
| Reducing the cost of renting | 25% | 13% | 44% | Lab +13 | +11 | +2 |
| Housing for first time buyers | 25% | 16% | 41% | Lab +8 | +9 | -1 |
| Housing for low income households | 28% | 14% | 41% | Lab +14 | +17 | -3 |
| Long-term planning for future housing | 25% | 17% | 41% | Lab +8 | +10 | -2 |
Public services
Labour continues to have reasonable leads in the delivery of public services, in an area that the Labour Party has traditionally been strong on. In particular the party has a lead on Working with public sector workers (such as doctors, teachers, public transport workers) (Lab +16) – however this is down 3 points since February.
Labour’s weakest lead is on Making sure public services are efficient / good value for money (Lab +4), which is also down 2 points since February.
| Best party to handle… | Lab gov’t | Con gov’t | Neither | Lab lead | Lab lead 19th Feb 2025 | Change since 19th Feb 2025 |
| Allocation funding to public services | 27% | 18% | 38% | Lab +9 | +9 | n/c |
| Working with public sector workers | 33% | 16% | 37% | Lab +16 | +19 | -3 |
| Making public services efficient | 24% | 20% | 41% | Lab +4 | +6 | -2 |
| Long-term planning of public services | 26% | 18% | 39% | Lab +9 | +8 | +1 |
| Quality of public services | 28% | 18% | 38% | Lab +11 | +12 | -1 |
This week
Local elections
Approximately a quarter of the country is holding local elections this year. In the areas voting in local elections this year: 22% are currently considering voting for their local Reform Party. 16% are currently considering voting for local Conservative Party, 14% for the local Labour Party, 13% for the local Greens and 11% for their local Lib Dems. (Key: this is consideration rather than voting intention.)
N.B. The vote share at the 2024 general election in parts of the country holding local elections was 30% Conservative, 30% Labour, 15% Lib Dem, 17% Reform and 6% Green.
NHS and roads dominate local politics: Across England as a whole these the most important local issues are local NHS services (44%) and Road maintenance and potholes (33%). On both the local Labour party has a lead over the local Conservatives of +7 and +3 points respectively.
There remains big scope for other parties to make gains, with neither local party most trusted on any of the local issues, particular road maintenance (44% trust neither party) or setting council tax rates (42% trust neither party).
| Most important local issues / party most trusted | % most important | – | Local Cons. | Local Lab. | Neither | Lab lead |
| Local NHS services | 44% | 17% | 23% | 37% | Lab +7 | |
| Road maintenance and potholes | 33% | 15% | 18% | 44% | Lab +3 | |
| Council tax rates | 29% | 19% | 17% | 42% | Con +2 | |
| Crime and anti-social behaviour | 28% | 19% | 19% | 39% | -/+0 | |
| Housing and planning | 23% | 17% | 20% | 39% | Lab +4 | |
| Impact of immigration locally | 20% | 18% | 15% | 42% | Con +3 | |
| Traffic and congestion | 16% | 16% | 17% | 42% | Lab +1 | |
| High street and local shops | 16% | 17% | 17% | 42% | -/+0 | |
| Local economy and unemployment | 16% | 17% | 20% | 38% | Lab +3 | |
| Delivery of council services (such as bin collections) | 12% | 21% | 21% | 34% | -/+0 | |
| Environment and sustainability | 11% | 16% | 20% | 37% | Lab +4 | |
| Local schools and youth services | 10% | 17% | 23% | 35% | Lab +6 |
Conservative-Reform agreement?
Right-of-centre voters divided on future Conservative-Reform agreement: 32% of Conservative and Reform voters collectively would support or oppose the idea of the Conservatives and Reform UK coming to an agreement in the next general election. However, 29% oppose the idea.
What deal would get the most support?
We ran a split test to see which agreement might get the most support amongst Conservative and Reform voters. Right-of-centre voters would appear to slightly prefer the idea of an even split of the country between Conservative and Reform candidates, although the idea remains divisive (28% support, 27% oppose).
There is greater opposition to the idea of the largest party in the constituency being the party chosen to stand in any agreement, meaning the Conservatives keep the lion share of seats (23% support, 32% oppose).
| What form of deal would get the most support? (Amongst Conservative and Reform voters only) | Support | Oppose |
| To what extent would you support or oppose the idea of an agreement where each party stood down in the constituencies where the other party got more votes in the 2024 general election? This would mean the Conservatives standing in 496 constituencies and Reform UK standing in 140. | 23% | 32% |
| To what extent would you support or oppose the idea of an agreement where each party stood down in the constituencies where current polling indicates the other party is currently doing better? This would mean both parties having a roughly even number of constituencies that they stand in. | 28% | 27% |