Polling Results

See the full data tables here.

Leadership Woes: Starmer, Badenoch and Farage all take approval hit

• Starmer and Badenoch each take three-point hit to approval rating, while Farage drops by seven points
• 9^th consecutive poll shows Starmer’s net approval ratings at net -40 or below
• A month before the Autumn Budget, Tories maintain lead over Labour on most economic issues
• UK public split on future of indefinite leave to remain

In the wake of a gruelling by-election in Caerphilly, both Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Tory Leader Kemi Badenoch have taken a three-point hit to their approval ratings this week, according to the latest polling from Opinium. Starmer languishes on -45, while Badenoch sits at net -17. Reform leader Nigel Farage has also declined in popularity this week, down to -13 (down 7 points).

This is the ninth consecutive Opinium poll in which Keir Starmer’s net approval rating has been on net -40 or below, suggesting his unpopularity has remained consistently strong since early August.

However, Reform continues to lead on voting intention among the public at 30% (-2), followed by Labour on 20% (-2). The Conservatives are unchanged at 18%, followed by the Lib Dems on 12% (+1) and the Greens 12% (+2).

Tories lead Labour on economy

With a month to go before the Autumn Budget, the Conservatives now appear to have an edge over Labour on five out of six key economic issues polled by Opinium, with Labour’s lead on all issues declining since the last time the question was asked.

The public express greater faith in the Tories on setting tax levels, with a 6-point lead for the Conservatives over Labour. However, neither party commands strong confidence overall, with “neither” the most frequent response to who the public trust most on the economy.

The only economic issue where Labour leads among the public is on improving public services (+9%), though trust in both parties remains limited.

Public split over indefinite leave to remain

In the wake of new Tory proposals that would strip some people of indefinite leave to remain (ILR), over half (54%) of voters think that the government should have the right to withdraw ILR if clear reasons are provided. Seven in ten (70%) current Reform voters agree with this position, compared to 64% of Conservative voters and 49% of Labour voters. By contrast, only 22% of voters believe ILR should be permanent once granted, while a quarter (24%) say they don’t know.

Among those who believe the government should be able to withdraw ILR, people are most in favour in cases where someone poses a threat to national security (87%) or commits a serious crime (87%). Two thirds (66%) think ILR could be withdrawn for failing to meet residency requirements, though only 30% support revocation for those claiming benefits.

Three in ten (30%) people believe ILR holders should always have to meet a minimum income level, while 26% think that should be the case only if that condition was part of their original application. Nearly one in five (18%) believe that no income condition should apply once ILR is granted.

The public are particularly split on what should happen with ILR going forward. Nearly a quarter (23%) think the scheme should be kept as it is, while two in five (40%) think it should be stopped or ended. Of those, 28% think the scheme should be stopped but existing holders should keep their status. Only 12% say the scheme should end entirely, including for current holders, with three in ten (30%) unsure.

James Crouch, head of policy and public affairs at Opinium, said: “Downing Street remains in dire straits. Our ninth poll in a row shows Keir Starmer at net -40 or worse, which is an incredible run of unpopularity for any prime minister. The Conservatives may spot early green shoots in perceptions of their economic competence, but both major parties still have a long climb before they can challenge Reform’s commanding lead.”

Appendix

Voting intent 

Reform are on 30% (-2), followed by Labour on 20 (-2). Conservatives are on 18% (N/C), followed by Lib Dems on 12% (+1) and Greens also on 12% (+2). 

Approvals 

Starmer continues to be very unpopular and has declined further (-45, -3), with Kemi also declining (-17, -3). Farage has also taken a hit and is on -14 (-7) 

Economy 

• Nearly a month out from the budget, the Conservatives are trusted over Labour on all economic issues with the exception of improving public services. Labour’s lead on the Tories has also worsened on all issues since last asked 

• People have most faith with the Tories over Labour when it comes to setting tax levels (-6), whereas people have more faith in Labour to improve public services (+9)  

• Dissatisfaction with both parties however is prominent, with ‘neither’ remaining the more frequently selected choice between the two parties. 

Indefinite Leave to Remain 

• Half (54%) of people believe the government should have the right to take away ILR under clearly defined conditions. Three in four (70%) current Reform voters believe this, compared to 64% Tories and 49% Labour voters. 

• A lesser 22% believe ILR should be permanent once granted, with 24% who don’t know. 

• Among those who believe ILR can be taken away, people are most in favour it if they pose a threat to national security, commit a serious crime, or if a person is convicted or repeated criminal offenses (87%, 87%, and 86% respectively). 

• Other reasons frequently selected include if the person had provided false information during the application process (82%), engages in any hate speech or inciement to violence (73%), and if one doesn’t meet a residency requirement (66%),  

• Only 30% think it should be taken away from those that claim benefits 

• People have mixed views regarding how income status should affect ILR status: 

• 30% think people should always have meet a minimum income level to keep ILR status 

• 26% think people should only have to meet minimum income level if that was the case when they originally applied for ILR 

• 18% think once someone has ILR status they should not have to meet any minimum income level to keep it 

• On average, people believe one need to live in the UK for 6 years before being able to apply for ILR.  

• Breaking this down further, 45% think it should be up to 5 years and 26% think it should be 6 or more years. 

• People have varied views as to what should happen with ILR going forward: 

• 23% think it should be kept as it is. 

• 40% think ILR should be stopped or ended. Broken down further: 

• 28% think the scheme should be stopped but those who have ILR should keep their status. 

• Only one in ten (12%) believe IRL scheme should end and that its status should be taken away from those who have it 

• One in four (30%) don’t know what they want to happen with ILR 

Monarchy 

• Favourability toward all members of the royal family has declined since we last asked on the 20^th March 2024 

• William and Kate are most popular (+53 and +52 respectively) 

• Whereas Andrew is by far most unpopular (-65), followed by Sarah (-25) and Harry (-15)