Opinium/LBC focus groups in Makerfield
As the Makerfield by-election approaches, Opinium partnered with LBC to explore how voters in one of the UK’s most closely watched political battlegrounds are thinking about the election, the parties competing for their vote, and the issues shaping their decisions.
Through a series of focus groups with specific types of local voters, we explored perceptions of Labour, Reform UK, Andy Burnham, national politics and the issues voters say matter most in their day-to-day lives.
The by-election has attracted national attention as Labour seeks to defend the seat with Andy Burnham while Reform UK looks to build on its recent electoral momentum. Our research was designed to understand not simply how voters intend to vote, but why.
Key Takeaways
1. Labour’s former voters are splitting into two distinct groups
With just days to go, what stood out most from the groups was that this is not one clear movement from Labour to Reform, but a growing divide among former Labour voters. Labour is no longer the automatic choice for many of the people we spoke to, with a widespread sense that things are not improving and Labour has not done enough to change that. Some remain on the fence, weighing up Labour against Reform and still looking for reasons to stay or hesitations on moving. Others appear to have moved on entirely, speaking about Labour with a sense of frustration and finality.
2. Reform’s appeal is rooted more in Labour’s weaknesses than its own strengths
For many participants, support for Reform was driven less by deep enthusiasm for the party and more by disappointment with Labour. Reform was often seen as the clearest vehicle for change and the most viable alternative in what many viewed as a two-horse race. Immigration was central to this, not only as an issue in its own right, but as a symbol of wider concerns about fairness, public services and whether politicians understand people’s everyday lives. While participants did not always trust Reform, many felt it was speaking more directly to those concerns than Labour.
3. Andy Burnham keeps Labour competitive, but cannot overcome the Labour brand
Andy Burnham’s personal appeal was one of the few factors keeping Labour in the conversation among some wavering voters. Participants often described him as more authentic, more grounded and, for some, more connected to local concerns than the national Labour Party. However, that advantage had limits. Among those who had already decided to back Reform, Burnham was still viewed through the lens of Labour itself. For these voters, dissatisfaction ran deeper than leadership and appeared to be rooted in perceptions of the party as a whole.
Download the analysis
Our full analysis explores:
- How voters describe the issues affecting their communities
- Why some former Labour voters are considering Reform UK
- The role Andy Burnham’s personal brand plays in the contest
- How local and national politics interact in shaping voter decisions
- The themes and messages resonating most strongly with voters
Download Opinium’s full analysis here.
Opinium commentary
Priya Minhas, associate director and partner at Opinium said: “Many of these voters weren’t telling us they had fallen in love with Reform. They were telling us they had fallen out of love with Labour. The key question for Labour is whether that drift is temporary frustration or a more permanent political realignment.“
About the Research
Opinium conducted two online focus groups with voters living in the Makerfield constituency in June 2026, in partnership with LBC.
The research was designed to explore the attitudes of politically engaged but not necessarily politically committed voters in one of the UK’s most closely watched by-election battlegrounds. Participants included voters who had supported different parties across recent elections, as well as those actively considering changing their vote in the future.
Across the discussions, participants explored the issues affecting their communities, their perceptions of Labour, Reform UK and other political parties, their views on the candidates contesting the by-election, and the factors most likely to influence their vote.
The focus groups were moderated by Opinium researchers and formed part of a wider programme of analysis examining political realignment, voter behaviour and electoral change in contemporary Britain.
For questions about the research, please contact: politicalsocial@opinium.com