Makerfield by-election poll
As the Makerfield by-election enters its final stages, Opinium on behalf of Forward Democracy conducted the largest poll of the campaign to understand how voters are approaching one of the UK’s most closely watched electoral contests.
Based on a mixed-method poll of 543 local residents, the research suggests Labour’s Andy Burnham has a narrow lead against Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon.
Key findings
Labour leads, but the race remains competitive
Andy Burnham holds a narrow 5-point lead over Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon once you look at those who are at least 7 out of 10 likely to vote.
While Labour currently leads in the by-election contest, the constituency’s longer-term political outlook could look more favourable to Reform UK. Asked how they would vote at a future general election, 42% back Reform UK compared with 34% for Labour, suggesting Burnham’s personal appeal may be helping Labour outperform its broader party brand locally.
Download the tables
Download the data tables here.
Commentary
Tom de Grunwald, founder of Forward Democracy and StopReformUK.Vote said: “If you live in Makerfield and you would normally vote Green, Liberal Democrat, or anyone else, and you don’t want Reform UK to win this seat, the maths is clear: Andy Burnham is the only candidate who can stop them.”
James Crouch, head of policy & public affairs research at Opinium said: “Andy Burnham enters the final week of the Makerfield by-election campaign ahead, but narrowly so. Labour’s five-point lead is smaller than Restore Britain’s current vote share, suggesting that a divided anti-Labour vote may be enough to deliver victory this time, but could leave Burnham vulnerable in future general elections.”
About the research
Opinium conducted a mixed-method poll among 543 adults aged 18+ living in the Makerfield constituency between 3rd and 11th June 2026.
A total of 234 interviews were conducted online and 309 were conducted face-to-face.
The research was commissioned by Forward Democracy and StopReformUK.Vote.