Polling Results

See the full data tables here.

Opinium has conducted a new constituency poll for Forward Democracy and Byline Times in the Gorton and Denton constituency ahead of the forthcoming by-election.

The findings point to an exceptionally tight three-way contest between the Greens, Reform, and Labour, with all three parties well within the margin of error of each other.

While the Greens appear marginally ahead on headline figures, the race remains highly competitive and statistically too close to call. The data also suggests that the Greens are more likely to benefit from tactical voting (and that Labour’s vote may be more vulnerable to erosion from late tactical movement), particularly if progressive voters coalesce around a perceived leading challenger to Reform in the final days of the campaign.

This following the key findings from the survey, including headline voting intention, likelihood-to-vote modelling, and evidence of potential tactical switching dynamics that could prove decisive in a close contest.

Key results

• It is currently a very close contest between Reform, the Greens and Labour.
• Headline voting intention (excl Don’t Knows): Greens and Labour on 28% and Reform on 27%. All these differences are well within the margin of error.
• Headline voting intention on 7+ likelihood to vote (excl Don’t Knows): Green’s in the lead on 30%, with Reform and Labour in second place both on 28%. All these differences remain within the margin of error.  
• It is not possible to reliably separate the three parties statistically into any order
• However, the Labour vote appears more vulnerable to a late “tactical squeeze”.
  • 66% of Labour + LD voters would be prepared to switch to Green if they were believed to be most likely to beat Reform (66% likely vs 30% unlikely).
  • But only 41% of Green and Lib Dem voters would be prepared to switch to Labour if they were believed to be most likely to beat Reform (41% likely vs 56% unlikely).
• There were only 11% who were undecided, reflecting the late stage of the campaign.

Media quote:

James Crouch, head of policy and public affairs at Opinium said:

“The Gorton & Denton by-election is shaping up to be an incredibly tight and unpredictable three-way race, with this latest poll also suggesting the Greens could benefit more than Labour from tactical voting in the final days of the campaign.

Since the July 2024 General Election, Labour has been squeezed from both sides, losing ground to Reform on the right and to the Greens on the left. That leaves the result finely balanced and highly sensitive to even small shifts as polling day approaches.

Crucially, progressive voters appear more likely to back the Greens rather than Labour as the anti-Reform option, a dynamic that could ultimately decide this knife-edge contest.”

Boilerplate:

Opinium conducted a representative online survey of the Gorton & Denton constituency, with interviews conducted between 16^th and 24^th February 2026. The study included 401 complete responses, and 339 who gave us a voting intention.