Insight

For investors, market volatility is nothing new. But in recent years, periods of uncertainty have become increasingly frequent and increasingly global. From ongoing conflicts and trade disputes to shifting geopolitical alliances, investors are navigating a landscape where political events can move markets as much as economic fundamentals.

Our latest Investor Voice and Advisor Voice research was conducted as the conflict in Iran unfolded, providing an early snapshot of how UK investors and financial advisers are responding to another major geopolitical shock.

The findings reveal a clear rise in uncertainty. While both investors and advisers recognise the risks posed by the conflict, their reactions differ markedly. Investors have become significantly more cautious about the outlook for their investments and are increasingly looking to reduce risk or seek financial advice. Advisers, meanwhile, remain comparatively measured, viewing market volatility as something to navigate rather than react to.

As geopolitical tensions continue to influence global markets, understanding how confidence shifts and how investors respond will be increasingly important for advisers, providers and the wider investment industry.

Our Senior Research Manager, Tom Cox, explores how the conflict in Iran is shaping investor sentiment and behaviour.

Ongoing market turbulence & uncertainty  

UK investors have lived through some turbulent times since Opinium started regularly tracking investor and adviser sentiment (in Q3 2024). The following geopolitical events have all rocked the stability of global trade relations and in the process contributed to uncertainty, market volatility and inflation risk for UK retail investors.

• The Russia-Ukraine war (ongoing since 2022)
• Gaza war (ongoing since 2023)
• Trump Tariffs (April 2025) and the significant escalation of US-China trade tensions (Since April 2025)
• Shift away from globalisation to regional blocks and “friendshoring” (triggered during 2020 pandemic but rapidly accelerating since 2025)
• The War in Iran (ongoing since 28^th February 2026)   

Mixed reactions to the War in Iran

Q1 ’26 fieldwork (14^th to 17^th April) closely followed the onset of the War in Iran. Investors and advisers were both aligned in their concern about the War. Asked what factors they think will most impact the value of their investments, the top response by some distance given by investors was the War in Iran (51%). Likewise, by far top concerns advisers hold over the value of their clients’ investments was the current geopolitical environment (70%).

Concerns run high but UK investors are far more impulsive in their response. Investor sentiment plummeted in Q1 ’26. The proportion of investors expecting investment opportunities to get better in the next 12 months fell significantly from 37% in Q4 to 32% in Q1. While those expecting  investment opportunities to get worse rose significantly up to 16%, an all-time high. Advisers on the other hand, are more cautious in their response, where the proportion that  rate investment opportunities in the next 12 months  getting better has actually increased slightly (up from 17% to 20% in Q1).

Taking more financial advice a key consequence of the War in Iran

We have noted investors being emotionally impulsive, and well over half of investors (62%) expect to take action with their assets in response to the War in Iran. The most common responses include: Taking financial advice (12%), investing less money (12%) and moving money into savings (11%).

Advisers also expect to see an increase in client’s seeking financial advice (46%) investing less than usual (28%) and moving money into cash (21%). Advisors acknowledge that their clients are likely to become more sensitive to risk (61%), more engaged (56%) and more likely to take a longer-term approach (48%) if market volatility increases further over the next 12 months.

Energy and Commodities increasingly seen as best buys, although uncertainty dominates

The War in Iran has shaken up UK investor intentions. There has been a significant decline in investors expecting to invest more (31%, down from 37% in Q4 ‘25) while there has been a significant increase in investors expecting to invest less (19%, a new high point, up from 13% in Q4 ‘25). At the same time there has been a significant increase in investors expecting to change their asset allocations.

• Recognising the growing oil price (following the crisis and partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz) there has been a significant increase in investors saying Energy (25%) represents a best buying opportunity
• Commodities were considered the best buying asset class throughout 2025, as investors sought out a safe haven during a turbulent year. The appeal of Commodities has improved again in Q1 ’26 (albeit only marginally +1pp)   
• There has also been a significant increase in investors saying they don’t know which markets represent the best buying opportunities (37%) and they don’t know what asset classes represent the best buying classes (40%). This sense of uncertainty and confusion echoes the fall out seen after the Trump Tariffs of Q2 ’25