Voting Intention – 15th May

15th May 2012

Labour have increased their lead to 11 percentage points with 41% as the Tories drop to 30%. David Cameron’s job approval ratings continue to suffer and on net approval (those who approve minus those who disapprove) he has dropped below Labour leader Ed Miliband for the first time.

  • This is the first time that the total share for both coalition parties (39%) has been below that of Labour and also the first time since September 2011 that Labour have reached the psychologically important 40% barrier, only the third time in the last year that they have done so
  • The Lib Dems remain in 4th place on 9%, one point behind UKIP who maintain their recent polling surge on 10%
  • David Cameron’s approval rating has deteriorated even further with just 29% of likely voters approving of his job performance while 56% disapprove. This has resulted in a big drop in his net approval rating from -22% to -27%
  • While Ed Miliband remains slightly behind Cameron on approval figures only (24% approve), far fewer disapprove of his job performance giving him a net rating of -17% and allowing him to overtake the PM.
  • This continues a recent run of good results for the Labour leader as our charts below indicate. After reaching a low of -30% approval in mid April, Mr Miliband’s ratings have jumped in recent weeks giving him the best approval figures since Opinium started measuring these last year
  • Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg’s approval rating has remained fairly constant (15%) while the percentage disapproving has crept up slightly to 61% giving him a net rating of -46%

Topline Voting Intention

Liberal Democrats9+1
Other parties20-1

Other Parties (breakdown)

Plaid Cymru1n/c

Approval ratings

% Approve% DisapproveNet ratingNet rating (own party)
David Cameron29%56%-27%+67%
Ed Miliband24%41%-17%+40%
Nick Clegg15%61%-46%+38%

Voting Intention Tracker

Party leader approval ratings

Party leader NET approval ratings

Opinium Research carried out an online survey of 1,957 GB adults aged 18+ from 15th to 17th May 2012. Results have been weighted to nationally representative criteria.

Interview Method and Sample

This survey is conducted online by CAWI (computer aided web interviewing), using Opinium?s online research panel of circa 30,000 individuals. This research is run from a representative sample of GB adults (aged 18+ in England, Scotland and Wales). The sample is scientifically defined from pre-collected registration data containing gender, age (18-34, 35-54, and 55+), region (North East, North West, Yorkshire and Humberside, East Midlands, West Midlands, East of England, London, South East, South West, Wales, and Scotland), working status and social grade to match the latest published ONS figures.

Opinium also takes into account differential response rates from the different demographic groups, to ensure the sample is representative.