The Tories regain their confidence

The Conservatives regain their confidence

Back in March, when Labour was clearly in the lead, more than twice as many people (54% to 24%) thought Labour would be the largest party in 2015 than the Conservative Party. Since then, that lead in expectation has fallen away and the figures now sit at 42% to 37% thinking Labour, instead of the Tories, will win.

Of course, both sides are most likely to think their own party will win. But what is clear is that Labour?s lead in expectations to win was down to a high degree of pessimism amongst Tory ranks. In March, only 60% of Conservative voters thought their party would win next time round, compared to 82% of Labour supporters who thought their side would win.

Although all voters have reacted to the polls, Labour voters are still pretty clear that they think they?re on course to win (75%). The movement appears to be down to the dissipation of defeatism from many Conservative voters. Now 79% of Tory voters think they?ll be on the winning side in 2015 ? up almost 20 points since March. Conservative voters now appear more confident of victory than Labour voters do.

Of course, who people think will win an election over 18 months away is unlikely to have any real bearing on the actual outcome. But, unlike earlier on this year when Cameron often appeared to be under siege from his own party, if your MPs and supporters are more confident of winning it makes the party far easier to lead.

Opinium Research carried out an online survey of 1,929 UK adults. Results have been weighted to nationally representative criteria. The research was conducted from 17th to 20th September 2013.