Political Polling 11th October 2018
The Conservatives†have reclaimed a convincing 4-point lead
After the ups and downs of conference season it appears that Conservatives have managed to draw a line under Chequers, taking their largest lead over Labour since May this year. The Conservatives managed to increase their vote share by 2points, while Labour dropped back by 2 points.
†Leader Approval Ratings
However, a change in leader approval doesn’t appear to have factored into this. Theresa May’s net approval is still relatively similar to Jeremy Corbyn’s.††
Overall, 33% think Theresa May would make the best prime minister, compared to 24% for Jeremy Corbyn, which has been relatively stable since the start of September.
Public are split on the most likely outcome in March 2019
The public are fairly split on what the most likely outcome in March 2019 will be. A third (33%) think that Britain is most likely to leave the EU without a deal by then, while a similar number (30%) think that Britain will leave with a deal
- 16% believe Britain not leaving the EU will be the most likely outcome in March
- Conservative voters are the most optimistic about leaving with a deal (50%)
The public are also split on their levels of concern about a no deal outcome occurring. 54% say they are worried about this happening, while 46% are not worried about a no deal situation occurring. Liberal Democrat voters are the most worried (70%).