Opinium/Observer Scottish Referendum Poll

Opinium/Observer Scottish Referendum Poll

As the Scottish referendum draws closer, our poll of 1,055 eligible Scottish voters aged 16+ for the Observer shows that the unionist campaign have a six point lead of 53% to 47% once undecided voters are excluded.

Excluding undecided voters

Among all Scottish voters who are 10/10 certain to vote, 45% would vote to leave the United Kingdom, 49% would vote to stay and 6% are undecided.

ImageIncluding undecided voters

Voters are also highly unlikely to change their minds. 93% of No voters say they are certain to vote that way and 90% of Yes voters are certain to vote Yes.

New powers proposed for the Scottish parliament have had little effect on voting intentions with 57% saying it has had no impact, including 46% of undecided voters. Furthermore, only 45% believe that the Westminster parliament will deliver on this promise while 47% believe they won’t.

The No campaign is seen as being too negative (53%), disorganised (49%), lacklustre (54%) and patronising (50%) while Yes Scotland are seen as too aggressive (43%) and unrealistic (46%).

Fears for either outcome

No voters are most concerned about the ability of a newly independent Scottish government to meet its financial commitments such as health or pensions (70% of No voters) as well as what currency Scotland would use (52%) and the possible effect on their living standards (40%).

Yes voters’ main concerns are to do with continued rule from Westminster (61%), followed by the UK parties not delivering on the promise of more devolution (55%) and Conservative politicians having too much influence over Scottish affairs (32%).

High marks for Salmond, less for his rivals

Alex Salmond receives high marks with 51% of Scots saying he has done well in the campaign. His deputy Nicola Sturgeon is close behind with 48% saying she has done well.

In contrast, Better Together leader Alistair Darling is seen by only 25% as having done well in the campaign with 24% saying the same for Gordon Brown, 13% for David Cameron and 10% for Ed Miliband.

Should Scots in England get a vote?

Respondents are divided on whether the 800,000 Scottish born people living elsewhere in the UK should have been allowed to vote in the referendum with 42% saying they should and 37% that they shouldn’t.

Opinium Research carried out an online survey of 1,055 Scottish adults aged 16+ from 9th to 11th September 2014. Results have been weighted to nationally representative demographic criteria as well as taking into account the results of recent elections in Scotland.

This survey is conducted online by CAWI (computer aided web interviewing), using Opinium?s online research panel of circa 30,000 individuals. This research is run from a representative sample of Scottish adults (aged 16+ in Scotland). The sample is defined from pre-collected registration data containing gender, age (16-34, 35-54, and 55+), region, working status and social grade to match the latest published ONS figures.
Opinium also takes into account differential response rates from the different demographic groups, to ensure the sample is representative.