A couple of thoughts on our Scotland poll

A couple of thoughts on our Scotland poll

This figure is even higher among Conservative voters (71%) which is interesting given suggestions that the Conservatives might benefit politically if Scotland, with its 41 Labour MPs, 11 Liberal Democrats and just 1 Conservative, chose to remove itself from the UK. It seems attachment to the Union outweighs thoughts of partisan advantage.

Alternatively, despite having ?United Kingdom? in their name, UKIP voters are among the most likely to prefer Scotland to be independent. There is still a solid majority in favour of the union (51%) but this is smaller than among voters of all parties while support for independence (29%) is higher than the 22% in the whole of England and Wales. The late Iain Banks once said UKIP would be more accurately described as ?the English Independence Party? and while we don?t publish regional crossbreaks in voting intention polls, it is notable that Nigel Farage?s party is far less popular in Scotland (4%) than they are in England.

Support for Scottish independence in England and Wales is also higher among men (29%) than among women (16%) which appears to mirror what we?ve seen with other companies? polls of Scottish voters. Obviously these are completely different samples but it?s an interesting parallel given that ?independence for Scotland? could also be interpreted as ?independence for England, Wales and Northern Ireland from Scotland?. Maybe nationalism is just more popular among men than women?

The other point is that on whether Scotland would be able to use the pound sterling after independence. Our question didn?t ask specifically about a currency union but asked whether they agreed or disagreed that ?an independent Scotland should be allowed to keep the Pound Sterling as its currency?.
While respondents were more likely to disagree (46%) than agree (31%), Conservative voters were far more likely to disagree (59% to 22%) than Labour voters (37% to 35%) while Liberal Democrat voters actually agreed (44% while 36% disagreed). Aside from the aforementioned tendency of Conservative votes to be more pro-union than other groups, I think the reason for this is how much George Osborne has been identified with the British government?s refusal to offer a currency union. Despite Ed Balls and Danny Alexander agreeing, signalling a rare moment of unity among the three main UK parties, George Osborne gave the speech and it?s possible that Conservative voters have taken this on board while Labour voters, because it comes from such a toxic source, have been more likely to reject it.

These were just my observations but there are plenty of interesting things in the tables below.